TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 15M
- Kalshi
Above 15M - Kalshi
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 15, 2026
Closed: Sep 12, 3:19 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The event tracks whether a specific artist achieves various thresholds of global daily views on a video platform during a defined week. Each threshold represents a distinct level of audience engagement, allowing participants to speculate on the scale of viewership the artist might attract.
Kalshi
Each market specifies a unique threshold of global daily views that Taylor Swift must surpass on YouTube during the period from September 7, 2026, to September 13, 2026, for the market to resolve to "Yes." If at any point within this timeframe her global daily views exceed the stated threshold—ranging from above 13 million to above 16 million—the corresponding market resolves affirmatively. View counts are determined using data displayed from a New York IP address via YouTube Charts, with the search set to "Global" location. It is explicitly noted that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and any references to YouTube charts are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by YouTube.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates the wisdom of the crowd, potentially identifying outcomes that individual analysts might overlook. While analysts may offer reasoned predictions based on available data, this market incorporates a broader range of information and perspectives from numerous participants. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas of uncertainty or disagreement, offering valuable insights into the potential range of outcomes for the highest daily view count during the specified period.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different daily view counts for Taylor Swift, and the price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy a particular contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform’s mechanism ensures that prices are constantly adjusting to reflect the latest information and collective beliefs of the participants. This dynamic pricing creates a real-time assessment of the likelihood of each potential outcome.
This market resolves around Sep 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The highest daily view count for Taylor Swift’s content between September 7, 2026, and September 13, 2026, will be determined by publicly available data from official sources. The resolution will be based on the verifiable peak in views during that timeframe, establishing which outcome corresponds to the highest number of views and determining the winning contracts in this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any major announcements regarding Taylor Swift’s content releases during the specified period, such as new music videos, album releases, or significant media appearances, would likely impact trading activity. Unexpected shifts in social media engagement or changes in streaming platform viewership trends could also influence the market. Furthermore, any news related to potential controversies or positive publicity surrounding Taylor Swift could cause traders to reassess their probabilities, leading to price fluctuations in this market.
