TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 14.6M
- Kalshi
Above 14.6M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 22, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Sep 18, 12:20 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether Taylor Swift achieves specific levels of global daily views on YouTube within a defined week. The outcome depends on whether her view count surpasses various thresholds at any point during the period, with all measurements taken from a New York IP address to ensure consistency.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds for Taylor Swift's global daily YouTube views from September 14 to September 20, 2026. Each threshold represents a separate market that resolves to 'Yes' if her views exceed the specified amount at any time during the week. All view counts are sourced from YouTube Charts using a New York IP address to standardize the data. The markets cover a range of incremental thresholds starting from above 13 million up to above 16 million views. While each market operates independently with its own threshold, they collectively measure the same underlying performance metric over the same time frame. Neither YouTube nor Kalshi endorses these markets, and references to YouTube charts are purely descriptive.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts, as predicting daily view counts for a cultural phenomenon like Taylor Swift is inherently complex. Traditional analysts often rely on historical data and social media trends, while this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd. If analysts were to provide a range of likely outcomes with associated probabilities, it would be interesting to see how those align with the implied probabilities reflected in the current prices on Kalshi. However, the market’s dynamic nature means odds can shift rapidly based on new information and trader activity.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and offers, and trades occur when there’s a match. The price reflects the probability of a particular outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a lower probability and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are essentially betting on their assessment of Taylor Swift’s potential viewership, and the collective actions of all traders determine the market’s prices. The market depth shows the volume of buy and sell orders at different price levels, giving an indication of market confidence.
This market resolves around Sep 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the highest daily view count for Taylor Swift’s content between September 14, 2026, and September 20, 2026, will be determined based on publicly available data from official sources. The resolution will identify the range of daily views that was actually achieved during that period, and traders holding contracts on the winning range will receive a payout. The exact methodology for calculating the view count will be detailed in the market’s resolution rules.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Announcements regarding new album releases, concert tours, or major media appearances by Taylor Swift would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Unexpected viral moments or controversies surrounding her could also influence viewership. Changes in the popularity of the platforms where her content is distributed, such as YouTube or TikTok, could play a role. Furthermore, any significant news events occurring during the specified week (September 14-20, 2026) could indirectly affect viewership patterns and, consequently, the prices in this market.
