TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Above 13M
- Kalshi
Above 13M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 5, 2026
Time left: 02d:12h:14m
Will Taylor Swift have above 13M daily views at any point during October 26, 2026 - November 1, 2026?
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Description
This event tracks whether Taylor Swift achieves specific levels of global daily views on YouTube during a defined period. Each threshold represents an incremental milestone in viewership, allowing participants to speculate on the exact level of audience engagement her content might attain during that timeframe.
Kalshi
The event consists of thirty-one separate markets, each corresponding to a distinct view count threshold between 13 million and 16 million. A market resolves to "Yes" if Taylor Swift's global daily YouTube views exceed the specified threshold at any moment between October 26 and November 1, 2026. All markets share identical timing and verification parameters: view counts are evaluated using data from a New York IP address via YouTube Charts, with the artist searched and "Global" selected as the location. No endorsement or affiliation exists between YouTube and the event operator. The structure creates a ladder of progressively higher thresholds, enabling granular speculation on potential viewership peaks within the defined window.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to analyst forecasts for this specific event, as reliable predictions of Taylor Swift’s daily view counts are not widely available. However, prediction markets often incorporate a broader range of information and perspectives than traditional polls or analyst reports. This market reflects the collective wisdom of traders, who are incentivized to make accurate predictions, potentially leading to a more nuanced assessment of the likelihood of various outcomes than you might find in conventional forecasts. The market's price adjusts dynamically based on new information and trader activity.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit buy and sell orders, and the market price reflects the highest buy order and the lowest sell order. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price represents the probability that Taylor Swift will exceed the specified daily view count during the defined period. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price will fluctuate, providing a real-time assessment of market expectations. The current price indicates what traders believe is the fair probability of the outcome occurring.
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the highest daily view count recorded for Taylor Swift’s content across major platforms during the period of October 26, 2026, to November 1, 2026. The exact methodology for calculating and verifying the view count will be determined by Kalshi and will be publicly available prior to resolution. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the verified outcome.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any announcements regarding Taylor Swift’s upcoming content releases, such as new music, concert tours, or major media appearances, would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in the popularity of streaming platforms or social media trends could also influence the market. Unexpected events, such as major news stories or viral challenges featuring Taylor Swift, could also drive increased trading volume and price movement. Generally, any information that alters perceptions of her potential viewership will affect the price of this market.
