TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 6:04 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This set of markets tracks whether Taylor Swift achieves specific global YouTube view count thresholds during October 2026. Each market corresponds to a different numerical target, with resolution based on daily view counts observed at any point within the month.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on whether Taylor Swift's global daily YouTube view count exceeds a specified threshold at any point during October 2026. View counts are determined using data displayed from a New York IP address through YouTube Charts, with the artist searched and "Global" selected as the location. These markets and products are not endorsed by YouTube, and any references to YouTube charts are purely descriptive, indicating no affiliation between YouTube and the market operator. The resolution hinges solely on achieving the exact numerical threshold defined for each individual market during the specified timeframe.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than traditional polls or media predictions, potentially incorporating a wider range of factors and real-time information. While analysts may offer opinions based on past performance and current trends, the prices in this market reflect what traders are willing to wager, providing a unique signal about the likely outcome. Discrepancies can highlight areas where the market perceives information differently than conventional wisdom.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential view counts. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that specific view count occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the likelihood of each outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by supply and demand, influenced by news, social media trends, and any information that impacts expectations about Taylor Swift’s viewership in October 2026.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the highest daily view count achieved by Taylor Swift across all major video platforms during the entirety of October 2026. The specific data source used to verify this figure will be determined by Kalshi and will be publicly available upon resolution. Traders will then receive payouts based on whether their purchased contracts align with the verified highest daily view count.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Announcements regarding Taylor Swift’s upcoming projects, such as album releases, tour dates, or major media appearances, would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in the popularity of video platforms or shifts in viewing habits could also impact expectations. Unexpected events affecting her public image or broader entertainment trends could also play a role. Any news related to potential collaborations or record-breaking achievements would be closely watched by traders and reflected in the prices within this market.
