TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
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2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
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MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 30, 10:03 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the exact final set score of the professional tennis match between Taylor Fritz and Dusan Lajovic at the 2026 Wimbledon Men's Singles Round of 128 on June 30. The market resolves based on the specific set-by-set outcome of the match.
The market resolves to Yes for the outcome matching the exact final set score of the match. Possible resolutions include Taylor Fritz winning 3-0, 3-1, or 3-2, or Dusan Lajovic winning 3-0, 3-1, or 3-2. If the match does not occur before it starts due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or cancellation, the market resolves to a fair price. If the match is postponed or delayed, the market remains open until the rescheduled match concludes within two weeks. If a player retires, markets that can be unconditionally settled based on completed play resolve accordingly; those that cannot are resolved to Fair Market Price at the Exchange's discretion.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets like this one are driven by trader consensus on the true probability of each exact score. Sportsbooks typically offer limited exact-score betting options, whereas this market allows traders to express precise views on all possible outcomes. Over time, prediction market prices tend to incorporate information faster than traditional sportsbooks, making them a useful benchmark for comparing market-implied probabilities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader orders into real-time odds for each exact-score outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares representing each possible final score, and the platform's pricing algorithm adjusts odds based on order flow and liquidity. As more traders express conviction in a particular outcome, its price rises and others fall. This continuous repricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the collective forecast of all active participants.
This market resolves around Jun 30, 2026, once the Fritz vs Lajovic match concludes and the final exact score is confirmed. The outcome is verified against credible public sources reporting the official result. Traders holding shares in the winning exact-score outcome receive their payout, while all other positions expire worthless. The resolution process is automated once the match result becomes publicly available and verifiable.
Several factors can shift odds in this market before resolution. Recent form and head-to-head records between Fritz and Lajovic influence trader sentiment, as do injury reports or surface conditions on match day. Betting action from professional traders and sharp money often precedes significant price moves. Real-time match developments—such as early set outcomes or momentum shifts—typically trigger the largest repricing once the match begins. Pre-match commentary from analysts and odds movements at traditional sportsbooks can also signal changing expectations among informed participants.