TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether Tate McRae will perform specific songs during the 2026 Victoria's Secret Fashion Show. Each song has its own market, and the outcome depends on whether she delivers a live performance of the song during the show.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple markets centered on Tate McRae's live performance of various songs at the 2026 Victoria's Secret Fashion Show. For any market to resolve to 'Yes,' Tate McRae must be physically present on stage and actively perform recognizable elements of the specified song—either through singing, rapping, vocalizing lyrics or melody, or playing an instrument that delivers the song’s melody, riff, or musical structure. Live contribution is essential; pre-recorded audio or video playback without simultaneous live participation does not qualify. Performances may include medleys, mashups, or partial renditions, and guest appearances count if she actively participates in the song. If the event is postponed before the deadline, markets remain open for the rescheduled date. However, if the event is cancelled entirely, rescheduled after the deadline, or Tate McRae withdraws, all markets resolve to 'No.' Soundchecks and rehearsals are explicitly excluded from qualifying as performances.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether a song will be performed at the Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts for a particular song, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of it being performed. Conversely, selling contracts lowers the price, suggesting a lower probability. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and reflect the collective wisdom of traders.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the setlist from the Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will determine which songs were actually performed during the show. Any disputes regarding the official setlist will be resolved using widely available and reliable sources. The resolution will be based on the officially released and verified performance list, ensuring a clear and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Official announcements regarding performers at the Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show would be a major catalyst, directly influencing the odds for songs associated with those artists. Leaks of the show's setlist, even unconfirmed, could also cause substantial shifts. Additionally, news about Tate McRae’s tour schedule or recent performances might offer clues about her potential song choices. Changes in public sentiment, reflected in social media trends or music streaming data, could also subtly influence trading activity in this market.
