TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Sep 30, 8:19 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the potential for a popular music artist to attract exceptionally high viewership on a global platform during a specific week. It examines whether view counts surpass various thresholds, reflecting audience engagement and content reach during that period.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Tate McRae achieves specified global daily view thresholds on YouTube within the period of September 28, 2026, to October 4, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct view count benchmark, ranging incrementally from above 2 million to above 5 million views. For any market to resolve as 'Yes,' Tate McRae must surpass the respective threshold at any point during the defined timeframe. View counts are determined using data displayed from a New York IP address via YouTube Charts, with the artist searched and 'Global' selected as the location. It is explicitly stated that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and references to YouTube charts are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by YouTube.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts for Tate McRae's daily view counts. Analyst predictions often rely on historical data and promotional activity, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders assessing a wider range of factors. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies and the dynamic nature of public interest. However, if analyst predictions consistently diverge from the market prices, it could indicate an opportunity for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential daily view counts. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust accordingly, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. Traders are essentially betting on their belief about how many views Tate McRae’s content will receive during the specified period.
This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The highest daily view count for Tate McRae’s content between September 28, 2026, and October 4, 2026, will be determined based on publicly available data from major video platforms. The specific data source will be verified for accuracy and reliability to ensure a fair and transparent resolution process. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their chosen outcome matches the verified result.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major announcements regarding new music releases, music video premieres, or significant media appearances by Tate McRae would likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected viral trends featuring her music could also drive up the expected view counts. Conversely, negative publicity or a lack of promotional activity could lower expectations. Social media engagement and pre-release streaming numbers will also be closely watched by traders as indicators of potential performance, influencing the odds in this market.
