TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$245,601,049
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,405,322
408,349
Markets across
39,583
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,443
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Above 4.8M
- Kalshi
Above 4.8M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 5, 2026
Time left: 02d:06h:56m
Will Tate McRae have above 4.8M daily views at any point during October 26, 2026 - November 1, 2026?
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Description
This set of markets tracks the potential for Tate McRae to achieve specific global daily view milestones on YouTube during a defined period. Each market corresponds to a different threshold of daily views, allowing participants to speculate on whether she will surpass these benchmarks.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on whether Tate McRae achieves a specified number of global daily views on YouTube at any point during the period from October 26, 2026, to November 1, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold, ranging from above 2 million to above 5 million views. View counts are determined using YouTube Charts, with 'Global' selected as the location and values displayed from a New York IP address. All markets explicitly state that YouTube has not endorsed these products, and any references to YouTube charts are purely descriptive, indicating no affiliation or endorsement between YouTube and the market operator. The secondary rules consistently apply across all markets, ensuring uniform methodology for verification.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of perspectives than traditional forecasts, potentially incorporating information not readily available to analysts. If analysts predict a certain view count range, this market will show whether traders agree or disagree, and to what degree. Discrepancies can highlight overlooked factors or differing interpretations of available data, offering a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes than either source alone provides.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential highest daily view counts for Tate McRae. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds are constantly updated based on the latest information and sentiment.
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The highest daily view count for Tate McRae’s content during the period of October 26, 2026, to November 1, 2026, will be determined by publicly available data from official sources. This data will be used to identify the contract corresponding to the actual highest daily view count, and those holding contracts for that outcome will be paid out according to the market’s pricing at resolution.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any major announcements regarding Tate McRae’s upcoming releases, performances, or collaborations would likely impact expectations for her view counts. Unexpected viral trends featuring her music or content could also cause shifts in the market. Furthermore, changes in platform algorithms (like YouTube or TikTok) that affect content visibility could influence trading activity. Finally, general shifts in public interest or the release of competing content from other artists could also play a role in how this market evolves.
