TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 22, 10:54 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether a specific artist achieves various incremental global view count thresholds on YouTube during a defined month. Each threshold represents a distinct level of audience engagement, allowing participants to assess the likelihood of the artist's content reaching increasingly larger audiences.
Kalshi
All markets in this event series resolve based on whether Tate McRae achieves specific global daily view count thresholds on YouTube during October 2026. For any market, if Tate McRae's global daily views exceed the stated threshold at any point during the month, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. View counts are determined using YouTube Charts with "Global" selected as the location and accessed via a New York IP address to ensure consistency. It is explicitly noted that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and references to YouTube charts are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement between YouTube and the event organizer. All markets share these consistent secondary rules regarding data source and endorsement disclaimers.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of factors than traditional forecasts, incorporating real-time data and diverse perspectives. While analysts may focus on established trends, the market can quickly adapt to unexpected events or viral moments that could significantly impact Tate McRae’s daily view counts. Discrepancies between the two can highlight overlooked variables or differing interpretations of available information, providing a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential daily view counts for Tate McRae in October 2026. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing expectations. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market efficiently incorporates available data and provides a real-time estimate of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the highest daily view count achieved by any of Tate McRae’s official music videos on YouTube during the month of October 2026. The data will be sourced from publicly available YouTube analytics, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the winning outcome. The market will then settle based on which contract corresponds to the actual highest daily view count recorded.
Several signals and events could significantly move this market. A major album release from Tate McRae, a viral TikTok trend featuring her music, or a prominent television appearance could all drive increased viewership. Conversely, negative publicity or a shift in music industry trends could have the opposite effect. Unexpected collaborations with other artists, significant changes to YouTube’s algorithm, or even broader cultural events impacting music consumption could also influence the market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on potential price movements in this market.
