TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$245,601,049
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,405,322
408,349
Markets across
39,583
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,443
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 22, 11:54 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The event tracks Tate McRae's daily YouTube view counts over a specific week, resolving based on whether view thresholds are met at any point during that period. All markets share the same timeframe and verification method, focusing solely on global view metrics.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on whether Tate McRae achieves specific Global daily YouTube view count thresholds at any point between October 19, 2026, and October 25, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct numerical threshold, ranging incrementally from above 2 million to above 5 million views. View counts are verified using YouTube Charts with the location set to “Global” and accessed via a New York IP address to ensure consistency. No market endorsement or affiliation exists between YouTube and the event organizers. All markets share identical secondary rules regarding location variability and data source methodology.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to specific analyst forecasts for Tate McRae’s daily view counts. Analyst predictions often rely on historical data, social media trends, and promotional activity, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders assessing all available information. If analysts predict a certain range of views, we might expect to see higher demand for contracts corresponding to that range in this market. However, discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and risk appetites.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit buy and sell orders for contracts representing different potential highest daily view counts for Tate McRae. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer a contract's view count is to what traders believe will occur, the higher its price will be, and the lower the implied probability of that outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and reflect the evolving expectations of participants.
This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the highest daily view count achieved by Tate McRae across all major video platforms (e.g., YouTube, TikTok) between October 19, 2026, and October 25, 2026. The specific data source used to verify the view counts will be determined by Kalshi and will be publicly available upon resolution.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major announcements regarding new music releases, music video premieres, or significant media appearances by Tate McRae would likely cause shifts in the odds. Unexpected viral trends featuring her music could also drive up the expected view counts. Conversely, negative publicity or a decline in social media engagement could lower expectations. Any news related to competing artists or major events happening concurrently could also impact this market, as attention is a limited resource.
