TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 28, 10:28 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of the fourth quarter in an upcoming football game between Tampa Bay and Jacksonville. Each market assesses different point spreads to determine which team will dominate the final quarter of play.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential between Tampa Bay and Jacksonville during the 4th quarter of the game scheduled for August 28, 2026, excluding any overtime periods. Each market has a specific threshold for the winning margin: Jacksonville must win by more than 10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, or 2.5 points, or Tampa Bay must win by more than 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points for the respective market to resolve to 'Yes.' If the actual margin exactly matches the threshold, the market resolves to 'No.' Only points scored during regulation time of the 4th quarter count; overtime points are disregarded for all markets. The outcome is determined immediately following the conclusion of the 4th quarter, without regard to the overall game result.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders actively buy and sell contracts representing the two possible outcomes, with the price determined by supply and demand. The current implied probability reflects the market’s collective assessment of which team is more likely to win the fourth quarter by more than the set spread. As new data emerges — such as injuries or weather updates — trading volume often spikes, shifting those probabilities.
This market resolves around Aug 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score differential for the fourth quarter will be compared against the spread to determine which side wins, and the market will close accordingly shortly after the game concludes.
Key signals that could shift this market include major player injuries, weather forecasts impacting game dynamics, or strategic coaching decisions revealed in the days leading up to the matchup. Any unexpected changes in team performance or starting lineups may also cause traders to re-evaluate their positions, influencing the odds as Aug 29, 2026 approaches.