TOTAL VOLUME:
$148.3b
24H VOL:
$206,446,559
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,817,056,367
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,853,498,357
475,549
Markets across
35,554
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,812
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Closed: Oct 8, 8:26 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks which player will score the first touchdown in the Tampa Bay versus Dallas professional football game. Currently, Kalshi gives Javonte Williams a 99.0% probability of scoring first. The market resolves based on whether the DAL Cowboys D/ST scores the first touchdown, as determined by the official result of the Tampa Bay versus Dallas game originally scheduled for October 8, 2026. Keep an eye on the game itself, as the market will resolve following the conclusion of the fixture and the determination of who scored first, with final resolution expected by October 9, 2026.
These markets determine which defensive unit scores the first touchdown in the Tampa Bay vs Dallas Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 8, 2026, with a third market resolving if no touchdowns are scored. If a defensive unit is active but never takes a snap, the market settles to the fair market price before game start. Once a unit takes at least one snap, even if nullified by penalty, the market settles based on touchdowns scored. If no touchdowns occur, the No Touchdown market resolves to Yes and all player markets resolve to No. Kalshi is not affiliated with the Governing League, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert opinions, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of the prediction market, where prices adjust rapidly to new information. It's common to see this market offer insights that diverge from initial sportsbook offerings, potentially revealing a different perceived probability of various outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each player scoring the first touchdown. As more people buy a contract, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of that player scoring first. Conversely, selling contracts drives the price down. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the collective assessment of all traders on Kalshi, creating a real-time probability distribution for the first touchdown scorer.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the player who is officially credited with scoring the first touchdown in the Tampa Bay versus Dallas game will determine the winning contract. The official game statistics, as reported by a recognized sports data provider, will be used to verify the outcome. The resolution will be based on the official game record, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result for this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding player injuries to key offensive players on either team would likely cause shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring a running or passing game, could also impact the perceived probabilities. Late-breaking reports about team strategies or player matchups could also move the market. Finally, even significant betting activity itself – a large influx of volume on a particular player – can drive price changes in this market.