TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 5:20 PM EST
Kalshi
The event tracks passing performance metrics for quarterbacks in a professional football game, focusing on thresholds of completed passes. Each market evaluates whether a specified player meets or exceeds a particular completion count during the contest. Outcomes are determined purely by statistical achievement without regard to game context or result.
All markets resolve based on the total number of passing completions achieved by the named quarterback in the specified game. If the quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before kickoff. Once the player takes at least one snap—even if that play is nullified by penalty—the market resolves strictly according to the actual completions recorded during the game. No adjustments are made for injuries, substitutions, or officiating decisions after snap participation begins. The governing league’s official statistics will serve as the definitive record for completion counts.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often providing a more accurate forecast than traditional sportsbook odds, especially as the event approaches. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or seek to profit from public perception, while this market aggregates the diverse perspectives of many individual traders. However, initial sportsbook lines may differ significantly from the opening prices on Kalshi. It's common to see the prediction market odds converge towards the true probability as more information becomes available and trading volume increases.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the total passing completions. The price of each contract reflects the market's current expectation of that outcome's probability. As more traders buy contracts for a specific completion total, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity indicate the level of confidence traders have in their predictions, and the price fluctuations provide insights into evolving sentiment.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing completions, as recorded by official sources, will determine the winning contract. The resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure an objective and transparent outcome. Traders will be able to view the final result and confirm their positions on Kalshi following the conclusion of the game.