TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 2:48 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting which Cincinnati Bengals player or unit will score the team's first touchdown in an upcoming game against Tampa Bay. Each market is tied to a specific player or the defensive unit, with outcomes determined by who crosses the goal line first for Cincinnati.
The event determines whether a specified Cincinnati Bengals player or the team's defensive unit scores the first touchdown in the game against Tampa Bay. Each market corresponds to a different potential scorer. If the designated player or unit scores the first touchdown for Cincinnati, that specific market resolves to Yes. If the player is active but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair market price before the game starts. Once a player takes a snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based on whether that player scores the first touchdown. If no Cincinnati touchdowns are scored in the game, the 'No Cincinnati Touchdown' market resolves to Yes, and all player-specific markets resolve to No. The markets are independent, and only one can resolve to Yes, corresponding to the actual first scorer, unless no touchdowns are scored by Cincinnati.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven purely by traders expressing their beliefs. If a significant number of people believe an outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price in this market will move accordingly. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information becomes available and public sentiment shifts closer to game time.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction, meaning the price changes with every trade. Traders buy 'yes' contracts if they believe Cincinnati will score a touchdown, and 'no' contracts if they believe they won't, or that another team will score first. The price of a 'yes' contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price is determined by supply and demand; more buyers push the price up, while more sellers drive it down, creating a dynamic reflection of collective predictions.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, resolution will depend on identifying the first team to score a touchdown in the game between Tampa Bay and Cincinnati. The official game logs and broadcasts will serve as the basis for determining which team achieved this milestone first. The market will then settle based on whether Cincinnati was the first to score, or not.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, particularly Cincinnati’s offensive players, would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also shift expectations about scoring opportunities. Furthermore, as the game approaches, any analysis or predictions from sports analysts could influence trader sentiment and move the price. Finally, early game developments, even before a touchdown is scored, could cause rapid price adjustments.