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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers - First 5 Innings Winner

Volume:
$28,707

Draw

 - Polymarket

Draw - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 17, 2026

Closed: Jun 16, 10:10 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Draw

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$97
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Los Angeles D -1.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,342
N/A
N/A
$8,972
Settled
No
kalshi

Tampa Bay -2.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,992
N/A
N/A
$4,940
Settled
No
kalshi

Tampa Bay -1.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,734
N/A
N/A
$1,591
Settled
No
polymarket

Los Angeles Dodgers

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$860
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Los Angeles D -2.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$682
N/A
N/A
$674
Settled
No
polymarket

Tampa Bay Rays

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This event group tracks the winner of the first 5 innings in the June 16, 2026 MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers. Markets across platforms assess which team is ahead after the completion of the 5th inning, with some platforms also offering tie/draw outcomes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses run-margin thresholds (1.5 and 2.5 runs) for Yes resolution, while Polymarket resolves on any lead margin and includes an explicit Draw outcome. The threshold gap creates misalignment for close wins.Hero tip: A 1-run or 2-run victory by either team will resolve to Yes on Polymarket but may not resolve to Yes on Kalshi. Traders holding positions across both platforms should account for this threshold mismatch. Clarify Kalshi's handling of ties and sub-threshold wins before settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves Yes only if Tampa Bay wins by more than 1.5 runs OR more than 2.5 runs, or if Los Angeles wins by more than 1.5 runs OR more than 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings. No explicit handling of ties or sub-threshold wins. Key Quote: 'If Tampa Bay wins by more than 1.5 runs in the first 5 innings of the Tampa Bay vs Los Angeles D professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jun 16, 2026 at 10:10 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Resolves to Tampa Bay Rays if Tampa Bay is winning (any margin), Los Angeles Dodgers if Los Angeles is winning (any margin), or Draw if tied after 5 innings. Includes explicit tie handling and postponement/cancellation protocols. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Los Angeles Dodgers" if the Los Angeles Dodgers is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw".'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers, scheduled for June 16 at 10:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Los Angeles Dodgers" if the Los Angeles Dodgers is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the run differential during the first five innings of the professional baseball game originally scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 10:10 PM EDT. Los Angeles Dodgers outcomes resolve to Yes if Los Angeles leads by more than the specified run margin after five innings, while Tampa Bay outcomes resolve to Yes if Tampa Bay leads by more than the specified run margin after five innings. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and resolves after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi derive odds directly from trader positions and liquidity, often updating faster than sportsbooks during live events. Unlike fixed sportsbook lines, these odds shift continuously as new information emerges. Prediction markets typically reflect sharper, more granular probabilities because traders risk real capital on outcomes. For this matchup, comparing this market's implied odds to your preferred sportsbook can reveal value opportunities, especially if one platform has moved faster than the other in response to pre-game developments.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different market structures and user bases, which naturally creates pricing divergence. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket focuses on binary outcomes (Dodgers leading after five innings), while Kalshi frames the question around run margin, attracting different trader demographics and risk appetites. Liquidity depth, trading fees, and platform-specific incentives also influence how quickly each platform reprices in response to injury reports, weather, or lineup changes. Arbitrage-minded traders often exploit these gaps before resolution.

Lineup announcements, injury reports, and weather forecasts are primary catalysts that shift trader positioning before first pitch. Starting pitcher performance history, recent offensive trends, and bullpen availability can also drive repricing. During the game itself, early runs, errors, and momentum swings in the first few innings will trigger rapid position adjustments as traders update their edge estimates. Unexpected roster changes or umpire assignments announced shortly before the game may also trigger sharp movement across both platforms.