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$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros
polymarket
predict
kalshi

Who will win Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros?

Volume:
$784,652

Yes

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 5, 2026

Closed: Jul 4, 7:34 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Yes

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$332,412
N/A
N/A
$268,685
Settled
Yes
polymarket

NRFI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$327
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Spread -1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,833
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$339,608
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros

View
N/A
N/A
—
$363
$13,708
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 8.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$77,576
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 5.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,403
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 4.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,381
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,721
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 7.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,882
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$260
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 3.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$163
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$122
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 6.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$77
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$61
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$52
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Extra Innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25

Description

This event group covers two distinct MLB prediction markets for the Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros game scheduled for July 5, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET: (1) the match winner market, and (2) a first-inning run-scoring market. Both markets share consistent resolution logic across platforms with standard MLB postponement and cancellation protocols.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All three platforms (Polymarket, Predict, Kalshi) apply identical resolution logic: official MLB statistics as primary source, with consensus reporting as fallback, and consistent 50-50 treatment for cancellations and ties.Primary resolution logic: Official MLB final statistics published on MLB.com; credible reporting consensus if official statistics unavailable within 24 hours of game conclusion

Core resolution logic:

  • Match Winner Market: Resolves to Tampa Bay Rays if they win, Houston Astros if they win, or 50-50 if game is canceled entirely with no makeup game or ends in a tie
  • First-Inning Run Market: Resolves to Yes if at least one run is scored by either team in the 1st inning, No if zero runs are scored in the 1st inning, or 50-50 if game is canceled with no makeup
  • Postponed games remain open and unresolved until the makeup game is completed
  • Game cancellation with no makeup game triggers 50-50 resolution for all markets in this group

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Postponement: If game is postponed, market remains open. Traders should monitor the home team schedule on MLB.com for makeup game details.
  • Cancellation without Makeup: If game is canceled entirely with no makeup game scheduled, market resolves 50-50 for both winner and first-inning markets.
  • Tie Game: If game ends in a tie, the winner market resolves 50-50. First-inning market resolves based on runs scored in inning 1 regardless of final tie outcome.
  • Official Statistics Delay: If MLB does not publish official final statistics within 24 hours of game conclusion, resolution may use consensus of credible reporting sources.
Timing: Resolution occurs after game completion and official MLB statistics publication. For postponed games, resolution is deferred until makeup game is played and completed. Target resolution window is within 24 hours of game conclusion.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros, scheduled for July 5 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

If either team scores a run in the first inning of the Tampa Bay vs Houston professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 4, 2026 at 7:10 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Predict

In the upcoming MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros, scheduled for July 5 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price the same event differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets reflect pure trader belief—there's no house edge, only liquidity providers. This market's odds may diverge from traditional sportsbook lines because traders here are directly exposed to accuracy, not betting against a fixed spread. Over time, prediction market prices often converge toward actual outcomes, making them a useful cross-check against conventional betting lines.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different prices on the same event for several reasons. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity depths, and fee structures, so price discovery happens independently. Polymarket may have deeper liquidity in certain outcomes, while Kalshi could reflect faster reaction to breaking news. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these gaps, but temporary spreads persist due to withdrawal delays, platform-specific trading costs, and information asymmetries between user bases.

Injury announcements, lineup changes, and weather updates can shift prices significantly before first pitch. Starting pitcher performance history, recent team form, and head-to-head records all influence trader positioning. Live game action—early runs, key hits, or pitching changes—will drive rapid repricing as the match unfolds. Breaking news about roster availability or field conditions can trigger sharp moves. Traders also react to competing prediction market activity and sportsbook line moves, so monitoring all three sources helps you anticipate momentum in this market.