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T20 Blast: Glamorgan vs Warwickshire - Most Sixes
polymarket
kalshi

Which team will hit more sixes: Glamorgan or Warwickshire?

Volume:
$262,119

Glamorgan

 - Kalshi

Glamorgan - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 3, 2026

Closed: Jul 3, 4:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Glamorgan

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$157,226
N/A
N/A
$94,430
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Warwickshire

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$104,894
N/A
N/A
$60,749
Settled
No
polymarket

GLA

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

WAR

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group tracks which team hits the most sixes in a T20 Blast cricket match between Glamorgan and Warwickshire scheduled for July 3, 2026. Markets across platforms attempt to resolve based on official match statistics, but the platforms define the event scope and resolution conditions differently.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi defines a match-outcome binary (always resolves Yes), while Polymarket defines a sixes-count comparison with three outcomes (Glamorgan, Warwickshire, or Draw). These are logically incompatible events grouped under the same name, creating unresolvable ambiguity about what the group actually measures.Hero tip: Treat Kalshi and Polymarket as separate, non-hedging markets. Kalshi's market is logically broken (both outcomes map to Yes). Focus trading on Polymarket's three-outcome sixes market, which has clear, unambiguous resolution criteria tied to ESPN Cricinfo official statistics. Request clarification from PredictionHero on whether Kalshi should be removed from this group.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary match-winner market. Both 'Glamorgan wins' and 'Warwickshire wins' resolve to Yes. This is a tautology—the market always resolves Yes regardless of sixes count. Quote: 'If Glamorgan wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Warwickshire wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Three-outcome sixes-count comparison. Resolves to Glamorgan if Glamorgan hits more sixes, Warwickshire if Warwickshire hits more sixes, or Draw if equal. Explicitly excludes super-over sixes, counts only off-bat sixes, and resolves to Draw if match is canceled/abandoned without official statistics. Quote: 'The outcome corresponding to Glamorgan will be considered correct if Glamorgan is officially recorded as hitting more sixes than Warwickshire. If both teams record the same number of sixes, the market will resolve to Draw.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to which team hits the greater number of sixes in the cricket match between Glamorgan and Warwickshire scheduled for 2026-07-03 in T20 Blast. This market resolves according to the finalized match statistics as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Glamorgan will be considered correct if Glamorgan is officially recorded as hitting more sixes than Warwickshire.The outcome corresponding to Warwickshire will be considered correct if Warwickshire is officially recorded as hitting more sixes than Glamorgan. If both teams record the same number of sixes, the market will resolve to "Draw". The market will resolve according to the team that hits the greater number of sixes in the match regardless of if the match is not competed (e.g. Due to weather conditions)/ Only sixes scored from the bat (off any delivery- legal or not) will count towards the total sixes. Overthrows and extras do not count. Sixes scored in a super over do not count. In First Class games, only first innings sixes will count. If the match is permanently canceled, abandoned, or otherwise completed without official sixes statistics being recorded, the market will resolve "Draw". If the match is postponed or rescheduled, the market remains open until the listed fixture is completed and official statistics are available.

Kalshi

Resolution depends on an official winner being declared by the governing body. If the match concludes with a decisive result, the winning team resolves to Yes. Ties, draws, no results, abandonments, or cancellations without an official winner all resolve to $0.50. Forfeits, disqualifications, or concessions occurring before play begins also resolve to $0.50; if they occur after play has begun and an official winner is declared, that result determines resolution. If play commences but insufficient play occurs to establish an official result, all markets resolve to $0.50.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed odds set by a bookmaker. Traders buy and sell shares representing outcomes, with prices reflecting live supply and demand. Sportsbooks, by contrast, set fixed odds and manage risk through margin. This market's prices may diverge from traditional sportsbook lines because prediction markets often incorporate longer-tail information and real-time sentiment shifts. Additionally, prediction market participants face different incentives—profit-seeking traders versus bookmakers balancing liability—which can produce tighter or wider spreads depending on liquidity and event proximity.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates independent order books and attracts different trader demographics, regulatory frameworks, and fee structures. Kalshi and Polymarket may have varying liquidity pools for cricket-specific events, leading to temporary price gaps. Settlement rules, contract design, and the speed at which each platform updates pricing can also create discrepancies. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these spreads, but friction costs and platform-specific restrictions may prevent instant convergence. Geographic trader concentration and platform-native user bases further influence how quickly new information is priced in on either venue.

Key catalysts include team lineup announcements, injury updates to star batsmen known for aggressive hitting, and weather forecasts that may favor either side's batting style. Recent form and head-to-head sixes statistics can shift trader sentiment as the match date approaches. Venue conditions—pitch type, boundary length, and wind patterns—are critical for predicting six-hitting potential. Late-breaking news about player availability or tactical adjustments by either captain may trigger sharp repricing. Live match momentum, early wickets, and in-play batting aggression will drive continuous price movement once the fixture begins.