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T20 Blast: Essex vs Hampshire - Most Sixes
polymarket
kalshi

Which team will hit more sixes: Essex or Hampshire?

Volume:
$137,447

Essex

 - Kalshi

Essex - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 10, 4:41 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Essex

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$84,236
N/A
N/A
$59,471
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Hampshire

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$53,211
N/A
N/A
$32,082
Settled
No
polymarket

ESS

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

HAM

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group determines which team (Essex or Hampshire) hits the greater number of sixes in their T20 Blast cricket match scheduled for July 10, 2026. The markets resolve based on official match statistics, with outcomes for Essex win, Hampshire win, or a draw if both teams hit equal sixes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market structure is logically incoherent - both possible match outcomes (Essex wins OR Hampshire wins) resolve to Yes, making the market always resolve Yes and unresolvable as a prediction market. Polymarket correctly implements a three-way sixes-comparison market. The two platforms are measuring entirely different events.Hero tip: Kalshi's market is broken by design and should not be traded. The event group title 'Most Sixes' clearly indicates a sixes-comparison market, which only Polymarket implements correctly. If you hold Kalshi positions, treat them as unresolvable until the platform corrects the specification. Trade only on Polymarket for this event.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Match-outcome binary market. Resolves Yes if Essex wins OR Hampshire wins. This is a logical tautology - one of these two outcomes must occur, so the market always resolves Yes. Does not measure sixes at all. Key Quote: 'If Essex wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Hampshire wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Sixes-comparison three-way market. Resolves to Essex, Hampshire, or Draw based on which team hits more sixes, independent of match result. Includes explicit handling for ties, incomplete matches, and cancellations. Key Quote: 'The market will resolve according to the team that hits the greater number of sixes in the match regardless of if the match is not competed.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to which team hits the greater number of sixes in the cricket match between Essex and Hampshire scheduled for 2026-07-10 in T20 Blast. This market resolves according to the finalized match statistics as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Essex will be considered correct if Essex is officially recorded as hitting more sixes than Hampshire.The outcome corresponding to Hampshire will be considered correct if Hampshire is officially recorded as hitting more sixes than Essex. If both teams record the same number of sixes, the market will resolve to "Draw". The market will resolve according to the team that hits the greater number of sixes in the match regardless of if the match is not competed (e.g. Due to weather conditions)/ Only sixes scored from the bat (off any delivery- legal or not) will count towards the total sixes. Overthrows and extras do not count. Sixes scored in a super over do not count. In First Class games, only first innings sixes will count. If the match is permanently canceled, abandoned, or otherwise completed without official sixes statistics being recorded, the market will resolve "Draw". If the match is postponed or rescheduled, the market remains open until the listed fixture is completed and official statistics are available.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the official winner declared by the governing body. If the match ends in a tie, draw, no result, abandonment, or cancellation with no official winner, all markets resolve to $0.50. If a forfeit, disqualification, or concession occurs before the match begins, all markets resolve to $0.50. If such an event occurs after play has begun and the governing body declares an official winner, markets resolve accordingly. If play begins but insufficient play occurs to determine an official result, all markets resolve to $0.50.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on continuous order books where traders set prices dynamically, often reflecting real-time information faster than traditional sportsbooks update their lines. Sportsbooks typically employ fixed odds with built-in margins, while prediction markets reward early movers and information advantage. For this market, comparing the implied probabilities here to your preferred sportsbook's odds can reveal value—especially if one venue is slower to price in late team news or injury updates before the match begins.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and risk appetites. Polymarket and Kalshi may weight the same underlying information differently based on their user base's expertise or regional focus. Polymarket's global audience and Kalshi's US-regulated model can also create timing lags in how quickly new data—such as team lineups or weather updates—gets priced in. Arbitrage-minded traders exploit these gaps, but they rarely close completely due to withdrawal friction and platform fees.

Key catalysts include confirmed team lineups and injury announcements—the absence of a power hitter can shift six-hitting odds significantly. Weather conditions at the venue matter too; overcast skies or strong winds reduce boundary-hitting frequency. Coin toss outcome and which team bats first can also influence strategy and aggression levels. Live match action, such as early wickets or momentum swings, will drive real-time repricing as traders update their edge on final six totals.