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T20 Blast: Durham vs Nottinghamshire - Toss Match Double
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Durham vs Nottinghamshire toss and match?

Volume:
$365,201

Nottinghamshire

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 5, 2026

Closed: Jul 5, 1:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Nottinghamshire

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$171,192
N/A
N/A
$83,317
Settled
Yes
polymarket

NOT

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$113
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Durham

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$193,896
N/A
N/A
$85,444
Settled
No
polymarket

DUR

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group covers a T20 Blast cricket match between Durham and Nottinghamshire scheduled for July 5, 2026. The markets require resolution based on both the pre-match coin toss outcome and the final match result, with specific combinations determining the winner.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution logic is internally contradictory and lacks toss specification, while Polymarket explicitly requires both toss and match alignment with a Draw fallback. The two platforms define fundamentally different markets.Hero tip: Treat these as separate, non-comparable markets. Kalshi requires clarification on whether toss is a factor. Polymarket is the only platform with a logically complete and resolvable structure. Avoid arbitrage assumptions between the two.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary resolution structure with logical flaw. States 'If Durham wins...then Yes' and 'If Nottinghamshire wins...then Yes' without specifying toss involvement or how both conditions can resolve identically. No explicit handling of draws, ties, or cancellations. Missing critical detail on whether toss outcome is required.
  • Polymarket: Ternary resolution with explicit alignment requirement. Durham Winner resolves Yes only if Durham wins BOTH toss and match. Nottinghamshire Winner resolves Yes only if Nottinghamshire wins BOTH toss and match. All mismatches, ties without tiebreak, cancellations, or abandoned matches resolve to Draw. Official source: ESPN Cricinfo.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between Durham and Nottinghamshire scheduled for 2026-07-05 in T20 Blast. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Durham will be considered correct if Durham is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. The outcome corresponding to Nottinghamshire will be considered correct if Nottinghamshire is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. In all other cases - including where the toss and match winners differ, or where no match winner is recorded - the market will resolve to "Draw". DLS/DRS adjustments, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, Super Over, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a match winner are treated as ordinary wins. If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the tiebreak winner will be considered the match winner for this market. If the match ends tied with no tiebreak used or available, no team will be considered to have won the match and the market will resolve to "Draw". If the match is permanently canceled, abandoned, or otherwise completed without an official match winner being declared, the market will resolve to "Draw". If the match is postponed or rescheduled, the market remains open until the listed fixture is completed and will then resolve as described above.

Kalshi

Resolution depends on the match outcome. If an official winner is declared by the governing body, the market resolves Yes for the winning team. If the match ends in a tie, draw, no result, abandonment, or cancellation with no official winner declared, all markets resolve to $0.50. Forfeits, disqualifications, or concessions occurring before play begins result in $0.50 resolution; if they occur after play has begun and an official winner is declared, the market resolves based on that result. If play begins but insufficient play occurs to determine an official result, all markets resolve to $0.50.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets operate on continuous trading rather than fixed lines, meaning odds shift in real time as new information arrives and traders adjust positions. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, which set odds to balance liability, these markets reflect aggregated trader conviction—often incorporating faster-moving data and sharper analysis. Sportsbooks typically build in margins; prediction markets compress those spreads through competition. For this event, comparing this market's implied probabilities to major sportsbook lines can reveal whether one venue is pricing the outcome more efficiently than the other.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and risk appetites, causing temporary price gaps. Polymarket may draw more conservative or informed traders on this specific outcome, while Kalshi could reflect broader retail positioning. Differences in market depth, fee structures, and settlement rules also influence how quickly each platform reprices in response to news. These divergences typically narrow as arbitrageurs exploit the spread, but monitoring both venues helps you identify mispricings and time entries strategically.