TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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T1 vs. Bilibili Gaming
kalshi
limitless

Who will win T1 vs. Bilibili Gaming?

Volume:
$2,957,972

Bilibili Gaming

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Limitless

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 4, 2026

Closed: Jul 4, 7:19 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Bilibili Gaming

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,178,258
N/A
N/A
$730,195
Settled
Yes
limitless

Bilibili Gaming

View
N/A
N/A
0¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

T1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,777,987
N/A
N/A
$1,188,086
Settled
No
limitless

T1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
0¢
N/A
$1,726
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 4

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the League of Legends match between T1 and Bilibili Gaming at the Mid-Season Invitational 2026. Across Kalshi and Limitless, the aggregated consensus shows Bilibili Gaming at 99.0% to win, with T1 at 1.0%. The resolution source is the official result of the match scheduled for July 4, 2026 at 4:00 AM EDT. Watch for the match outcome on July 4, 2026, which will determine final settlement across both platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution criteria create a logical impossibility by stating that both T1 victory and Bilibili Gaming victory resolve to YES, with no explicit NO condition or timeout fallback. This makes the market fundamentally unresolvable as a binary outcome.Hero tip: Avoid trading on Kalshi until clarification is provided. The Limitless markets are logically consistent: each team has its own binary market (YES if that team wins, NO if they lose, Other if no result by deadline). Use Limitless as your settlement reference.

Critical divergence points:

  • Limitless: Two separate binary markets: Bilibili Gaming market resolves YES if Bilibili wins, NO if T1 wins, Other if no result by August 4, 2026 23:59 UTC. T1 market resolves YES if T1 wins, NO if Bilibili wins, Other if no result by deadline. Forfeits/disqualifications resolve to the declared winner.
  • Kalshi: Single market with contradictory resolution: states YES if T1 wins AND YES if Bilibili Gaming wins, with no NO outcome defined and no timeout clause. This creates an unresolvable binary market.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Kalshi

If T1 wins the Mid-Season Invitational 2026: T1 vs. Bilibili Gaming League of Legends match originally scheduled for Jul 4, 2026 at 4:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bilibili Gaming wins the Mid-Season Invitational 2026: T1 vs. Bilibili Gaming League of Legends match originally scheduled for Jul 4, 2026 at 4:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Limitless

This market refers to the match between Bilibili Gaming and T1 in the Mid-Season Invitational 2026, scheduled for Jul 4, 2026. This market resolves to "YES" if the team named in the title wins in the specified match. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO." If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner, regardless of whether the match has started or when the decision is made. If the match is not completed with an official result by August 4, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to "Other."

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on a fundamentally different mechanism than traditional sportsbooks. Rather than a bookmaker setting fixed odds and taking vig, traders on these platforms buy and sell shares directly, with prices reflecting live supply and demand. This peer-to-peer price discovery often reacts faster to new information and can diverge meaningfully from sportsbook lines, especially in niche esports matchups. Sportsbooks adjust odds to balance liability; prediction markets adjust to balance order flow. Comparing this market's odds to any available esports betting lines can reveal where smart money is positioning itself.

Kalshi and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates under distinct market rules, user bases, and liquidity conditions. Kalshi may attract traders with different risk appetites or information sets than Limitless, causing their respective prices to drift apart. Platform-specific fees, minimum order sizes, and withdrawal policies also influence how aggressively traders commit capital. Additionally, one platform may see larger informed trading activity around esports events, while the other draws more casual predictors. These structural differences mean identical outcomes can trade at slightly different probabilities, creating arbitrage opportunities for alert traders.

Key catalysts include roster changes, player injuries or substitutions, recent tournament performance, and head-to-head matchup history. Patch updates to the underlying game can shift meta-game advantages, favoring one team's playstyle over the other. Pre-match interviews, team statements, or coaching changes may signal confidence or concern. Live in-game events—such as early game advantages or momentum swings during the match itself—will drive sharp repricing. Social media sentiment and professional analyst predictions can also influence retail trader positioning, creating secondary waves of price movement as the event approaches.