TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Syria vs. Iran
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win Syria vs Iran?

Volume:
$41,370

Iran

 - Kalshi

Iran - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 5, 2026

Closed: Jul 5, 11:14 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Iran

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$15,914
N/A
N/A
$14,764
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Syria

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,989
N/A
N/A
$12,157
Settled
No
polymarket

Syria vs. Iran

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,466
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 3

Description

This event group covers a FIBA World Cup Qualifiers basketball game between Syria and Iran scheduled for July 5, 2026 at 9:30 AM EDT. Markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing the outcome of this single professional basketball match.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution logic contains a logical contradiction where both mutually exclusive outcomes (Syria win and Iran win) are mapped to the same resolution state (Yes), making the market fundamentally unresolvable. This represents a data integrity failure.Hero tip: Do not trade on Kalshi until this contradiction is resolved. The market cannot settle correctly as written. Contact Kalshi support to clarify whether the Iran outcome should resolve to No, or if this is a template error. Polymarket's binary structure is logically sound and should be preferred.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary outcome market with clear mutually exclusive resolution paths. Syria win resolves to Syria, Iran win resolves to Iran. Postponement keeps market open; cancellation resolves 50-50 split. Resolution based on final score including overtime.
  • Kalshi: Contradictory resolution logic: both Syria win and Iran win are stated to resolve to Yes, creating an impossible scenario. This violates basic binary logic and makes settlement impossible.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming FIBA WCQ Asia game, scheduled for July 5 at 9:30AM ET: If the Syria win, the market will resolve to "Syria". If the Iran win, the market will resolve to "Iran". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the final result of the Iran vs Syria professional FIBA World Cup Qualifiers basketball game scheduled for July 5, 2026 at 9:30 AM EDT. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and resolves after the rescheduled game concludes, provided the reschedule occurs within two weeks of the original date. Should the game be cancelled and not played, or rescheduled beyond two weeks from the original date, the market resolves to a fair price for each team in accordance with established rules.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on fundamentally different mechanics than traditional sportsbooks. Rather than a bookmaker setting fixed odds, traders on these platforms directly buy and sell shares reflecting their beliefs about outcomes. This creates continuous, dynamic pricing driven by supply and demand. Sportsbooks typically apply margins and limits to manage risk, whereas prediction markets aggregate dispersed information from thousands of participants. For geopolitical events, prediction markets often reflect longer-term uncertainty and broader participant bases than sports-focused books, making them valuable for understanding tail-risk scenarios.

Polymarket and Kalshi can price this market differently for several reasons. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts distinct trader demographics, liquidity pools, and regulatory frameworks. Polymarket operates globally with minimal restrictions, while Kalshi operates under U.S. CFTC oversight, potentially attracting more conservative or institutional participants. Timing lags in order-book matching, differences in market depth, and platform-specific fee structures also create temporary arbitrage opportunities. Traders monitoring both venues can exploit these gaps or use divergence as a signal of emerging consensus shifts.