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Closed: Jun 18, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This market measures the goal differential between Switzerland and Bosnia and Herzegovina during the second half of their FIFA World Cup match on June 18, 2026, determining whether one team wins by more than 1.5 goals.
The second half spread market evaluates the goal differential between the two teams during the 45 minutes of play plus stoppage time in the second half only. One market resolves to Yes if Switzerland wins by more than 1.5 goals, while another resolves to Yes if Bosnia and Herzegovina wins by more than 1.5 goals. Goals scored during the first half do not count toward this calculation. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with established rules.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money commitments from a diverse crowd of traders rather than a single expert opinion. While sports analysts may rely on historical statistics and team form, this market aggregates live information and shifting sentiment from participants with direct financial stakes. Comparing the two can reveal where the crowd sees value that conventional analysis may have missed, or conversely, where expert consensus differs from market pricing.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the collective assessment of all active participants, with bid-ask spreads tightening as more volume flows through the market. Real-time price discovery occurs as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions ahead of the match's second half.
This market resolves around Jun 18, 2026, once the Switzerland vs Bosnia match concludes and the second-half spread can be verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the actual point differential recorded during the second half of play, as reported by official match records. Resolution occurs shortly after the final whistle, allowing traders to settle their positions based on the confirmed result.
Key injury announcements, team lineup changes, and recent form updates can shift market pricing significantly. Weather conditions on match day, venue factors, and any last-minute tactical adjustments by either side may also influence trader sentiment. Additionally, live action during the first half can provide new information that reshapes expectations for the second-half spread, causing sharp price movements as traders react to how the match unfolds in real time.