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406,065
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Closed: Jul 2, 11:40 PM EST
Kalshi
This event group covers a single prediction market: which team scores first in the Switzerland vs. Algeria FIFA World Cup match scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 11:00 PM ET. The market has three possible outcomes: Switzerland, Algeria, or Neither (if no goal is scored in regulation and stoppage time).
In the upcoming match between Switzerland and Algeria, scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 11:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Switzerland" if Switzerland are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Algeria" if Algeria are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
The market resolves based on which team records the first goal during the entire Switzerland vs Algeria FIFA World Cup match scheduled for July 2, 2026, encompassing regulation time, stoppage time, and any extra time periods. Three outcomes are possible: Switzerland scores first, Algeria scores first, or no goal is scored throughout the entire match. If the first goal is an own goal, resolution is determined by the team officially awarded the goal credit. The market does not distinguish between goals scored in regulation versus extra time—only the chronological order of the first goal matters.
In the upcoming match between Switzerland and Algeria, scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 11:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Switzerland" if Switzerland are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Algeria" if Algeria are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can cause temporary price gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi may also settle outcomes using slightly different verification timelines or data sources, creating arbitrage opportunities. Platform-specific incentives, promotional activity, or user base composition can shift conviction on either side. These differences typically narrow as the event approaches and informed traders exploit mispricings, but gaps often persist until resolution due to platform isolation and varying trader risk appetites.