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Sweden vs. Tunisia - First Team to Score
polymarket
kalshi

Sweden vs. Tunisia - First Team to Score

Volume:
$107,430

Sweden

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 15, 2026

Closed: Jun 14, 10:41 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Sweden

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25,151
N/A
N/A
$19,785
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Sweden

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$20,033
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Tunisia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,043
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tunisia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,214
N/A
N/A
$13,678
Settled
No
polymarket

Neither

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,389
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

No Goal

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,599
N/A
N/A
$11,943
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers the first team to score in the Sweden vs. Tunisia FIFA World Cup match scheduled for June 14, 2026. Markets resolve based on which team (if any) scores the first goal during the match, with three possible outcomes: Sweden, Tunisia, or Neither.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket limits resolution to 90 minutes plus stoppage time, while Kalshi includes the entire match including extra time. This creates a scope divergence that will produce different outcomes if the match requires extra time to determine a first goal.Hero tip: If you hold positions on both platforms, understand that a goal in extra time creates a split resolution: Neither on Polymarket, but Sweden or Tunisia on Kalshi. Consider your risk tolerance for matches that may extend beyond regulation time.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on first goal scored within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only. Extra time and penalty shootouts are explicitly excluded from consideration. Resolution source is official event statistics or credible reporting consensus if official stats unavailable within 2 hours of match conclusion.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on first goal scored during the entire game including regulation, stoppage time, and any extra time periods. All three outcomes (Sweden, Tunisia, or Neither) are treated as Yes resolutions depending on which occurs.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming match between Sweden and Tunisia, scheduled for June 14, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Sweden" if Sweden are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Tunisia" if Tunisia are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Kalshi

The first goal scored during the entire match—including regulation, stoppage time, and any extra time periods—determines the outcome. If Sweden scores first, that outcome resolves to Yes. If Tunisia scores first, that outcome resolves to Yes. If no goal is scored throughout the entire match, the No Goal outcome resolves to Yes. Own goals are credited to the team receiving the goal credit per official records. Exactly one outcome will resolve to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi often reflect different risk profiles than traditional sportsbooks. Prediction market odds are set by peer-to-peer trading rather than bookmaker margins, potentially offering sharper pricing on niche outcomes like first-goal bets. Sportsbooks typically build in higher margins and may limit liability on volatile markets. The Sweden vs. Tunisia first-goal market on prediction platforms may show wider spreads or different consensus than retail sportsbooks, especially if professional traders are active. Comparing both sources helps identify value and understand whether the prediction market is pricing in information sportsbooks have not yet reflected.

Team news significantly impacts first-goal odds: injuries to key strikers or defenders, lineup announcements, or tactical shifts can alter scoring probability. Pre-match betting patterns and sharp money flowing into one side may signal informed positioning. Weather conditions, pitch quality, and referee assignments can influence early-game dynamics. Social media sentiment and expert predictions may sway casual traders. As kickoff approaches, odds typically tighten as uncertainty resolves. During the match itself, early possession, corner kicks, and near-misses will drive rapid repricing. Monitor team news feeds and platform activity closely in the hours before kickoff for maximum predictive edge.