TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$172,394,893
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,821,572,886
404,136
Markets across
40,075
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 13d:00h:12m
Will SWALLOW! by Shygirl have above 12000000 streams during the November 06, 2026 - November 12, 2026 tracking week?
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Description
This event tracks the performance of a specific music track during a defined week, focusing on how many times it is streamed online. The outcome depends on whether the stream count surpasses various thresholds, reflecting audience engagement and popularity over a short period.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether the track "SWALLOW!" by Shygirl achieves specific streaming milestones within the U.S. during the week of November 6, 2026, to November 12, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different streaming threshold, ranging from above 1 million to above 20 million streams. All markets will resolve based on data reported by Luminate’s API at 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday immediately following the tracking week. Luminate Data, LLC serves as a neutral metrics provider and does not endorse or influence the outcomes of any prediction markets. The resolution of each market is contingent upon the actual stream count for the specified week meeting or exceeding its respective threshold.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. While analysts often provide pre-event predictions based on their understanding of the show and its potential viewership, this market reflects the aggregated beliefs of a diverse group of traders. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market anticipates surprises or where analysts may be over or underestimating certain factors influencing the streaming numbers. It’s a dynamic comparison, as both forecasts and market prices evolve as new information emerges.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means prices are determined purely by supply and demand, with traders adjusting their bids and asks based on their own analysis and expectations. The current price indicates the market's assessment of the likelihood of achieving certain streaming milestones for SWALLOW!.
This market resolves around Nov 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official streaming data for the first week of SWALLOW! is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the officially reported streaming numbers for the series during its initial release week. The specific metrics used for resolution will be those publicly disclosed by the streaming platform, ensuring transparency and objectivity in determining the market's outcome. Traders should monitor official announcements for the exact data used in resolution.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Early critical reviews of SWALLOW! will likely have a substantial impact, as positive or negative reception can influence viewership. Marketing campaigns and social media buzz surrounding the show could also drive increased interest and, consequently, higher trading volume. Unexpected news related to the cast or production could also introduce volatility. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of the show’s potential success could lead to shifts in the odds within this market.
