TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 7, 2026
Closed: Jul 6, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to how much "Supergirl" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (July 3 - July 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to how much "Supergirl" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (July 3 - July 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets from a broad range of traders rather than relying on a single firm's model. Analysts typically publish point estimates or ranges based on historical performance, marketing spend, and comparable titles, while this market prices in live sentiment and new information continuously. When analyst predictions shift—due to early ticket sales, social media buzz, or competitive releases—traders may react faster or slower depending on how quickly they interpret that data, creating temporary gaps between the two signals.
On Polymarket, traders set the odds by buying and selling outcome shares in an automated market maker system. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome is priced between 0 and 100 cents based on the ratio of shares held in the liquidity pool; as more traders bet on a particular outcome, its price rises, and competing outcomes fall. This continuous pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the collective judgment of all active participants in real time, with spreads tightening as volume increases and more capital enters the pool.
This market resolves around Jul 6, 2026, once the second weekend box office figures for Supergirl are verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome is determined by the actual domestic box office earnings recorded during the film's second full weekend of theatrical release, measured against the threshold ranges specified in the market's outcome options. Resolution occurs after major box office tracking services and industry publications have confirmed and reconciled their final numbers.
Key catalysts include opening weekend box office results, which set a baseline for second-weekend hold expectations and audience reception. Critical reviews, social media sentiment, and word-of-mouth metrics can shift trader confidence in repeat viewership. Competing releases scheduled for the same period, weather events, and broader entertainment news may also influence projections. Real-time ticket presales data, industry commentary from box office analysts, and any marketing pushes or promotional events by the studio can trigger rapid repricing as new information becomes available.
