TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 16, 4:57 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional Europa League soccer match between Sunderland and Alkmaar, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals the winning team scores beyond their opponent within the regulation 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks.
The event evaluates different goal-differential scenarios in the Sunderland versus Alkmaar Europa League match scheduled for September 16, 2026. Four distinct outcomes are considered, each tied to specific victory margins: Sunderland winning by more than 2.5 goals, Sunderland winning by more than 1.5 goals, Alkmaar winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Alkmaar winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions are based solely on the final score after 90 minutes of regular play plus any added stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty shootouts. The governing rules clarify that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the league, and all associated trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the 'wisdom of the crowd,' potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by factors like house bias or promotional offers. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on their analysis, while this market's price is determined by traders actively buying and selling contracts. If a significant discrepancy exists between the two, arbitrage opportunities may arise, as traders attempt to profit from the difference. However, it's important to remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome, and neither is guaranteed to be perfectly accurate.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders bid to buy and offer to sell contracts representing different outcomes of the spread. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price fluctuates, providing a dynamic representation of collective belief. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay or receive for a contract that pays out based on the final result of the Sunderland vs Alkmaar match.
This market resolves around Sep 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final spread of the Sunderland vs Alkmaar match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result as reported by the governing sports authority. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the incorrect outcome will forfeit their investment. The platform will verify the result and distribute payouts accordingly, ensuring a transparent and accurate resolution process.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 16, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Sunderland or Alkmaar could significantly shift expectations. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather forecasts impacting playing conditions could also play a role. Unexpected announcements about team selection or managerial decisions might also cause price movements. Ultimately, any information that alters the perceived probability of a particular outcome in the Sunderland vs Alkmaar match has the potential to move this market.