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402,751

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Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro
kalshi
polymarket

Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro

Volume:
$764,350

Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro

 - Polymarket

Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 13, 2026

Closed: Jun 19, 12:50 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$687,839
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Sho Shimabukuro

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$41,452
N/A
N/A
$22,397
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Match O/U 21.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$64
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Match O/U 23.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 2 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$48
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 1 O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 1 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ben Shelton

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31,550
N/A
N/A
$25,175
Settled
No
polymarket

Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 1 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,685
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,616
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 1 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Completed Match

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Match O/U 22.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 2 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Total Sets: O/U 2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 2 O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 2 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group covers the professional tennis match between Ben Shelton and Sho Shimabukuro at the 2026 ATP Stuttgart Open Quarterfinal, scheduled for June 12, 2026. Markets span match outcome, set winners, game totals, and set handicaps across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi Set 1 markets contain a logical contradiction where both possible outcomes (Shelton wins OR Shimabukuro wins set 1) resolve to YES, making the market non-predictive and fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket provides coherent, comprehensive resolution logic across all markets with clear edge-case handling.Hero tip: Do not trade Kalshi markets 1-2 (Set 1 Winner). These markets are logically invalid. All predictive value exists in Polymarket's suite. For any settlement, consult official ATP Tour statistics at atptour.com/en/scores/current and apply the 7-day delay threshold consistently.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Markets 1-2 state: 'If Ben Shelton wins set 1...YES' AND 'If Sho Shimabukuro wins set 1...YES.' This is a logical tautology—any completed set 1 resolves to YES, eliminating predictive differentiation. No edge cases, no 50-50 fallback, no completion requirement specified.
  • Polymarket: Markets 4-31 provide coherent resolution: Match winner resolves to player who advances (market 4). Completion market (5) requires full match play; incomplete/forfeit/walkover = NO. All game/set markets include 50-50 fallback for incomplete play or 7+ day delays. Primary source: ATP Tour official statistics.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Ben Shelton and Sho Shimabukuro in the Stuttgart Open, originally scheduled for June 12, 2026 at 12:50PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ben Shelton' if Ben Shelton advances against Sho Shimabukuro. This market will resolve to 'Sho Shimabukuro' if Sho Shimabukuro advances against Ben Shelton. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on which player wins the opening set of the match. If the match does not begin due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or cancellation before play starts, the market resolves to a fair price. If the match is postponed or delayed, it remains open until the rescheduled match concludes within two weeks. Should a player retire, any market that can be definitively settled from completed play resolves accordingly; otherwise, it resolves to fair market price at the Exchange's discretion.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price events differently because they operate under distinct mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and manage risk, while prediction markets let traders freely set prices through supply and demand. This market often reflects sharper, less-biased pricing since traders have direct financial exposure and can't rely on the house edge. Comparing this market's odds to major sportsbooks can reveal value opportunities, especially when one venue has significantly higher volume or liquidity than the other.

Polymarket and Kalshi may show different odds due to variations in user base, liquidity depth, and contract design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts traders with different risk tolerances and information sets, so prices can lag or lead depending on which venue sees fresh volume first. Liquidity imbalances also matter: lower volume on one platform can cause wider spreads and slower price discovery, while the other venue's deeper order book reflects faster consensus. Arbitrage traders often exploit these gaps, gradually aligning prices across venues.

Key catalysts include recent tournament performance by both players, injury announcements, and head-to-head matchup history. Court surface conditions at Stuttgart and player comfort on grass will influence trader positioning. Warm-up event results in the weeks leading up to the match often shift odds sharply, as will any changes to seeding or draw implications. Live match action—early set outcomes or momentum swings—typically generates the largest intraday moves. Monitor player social media and official tour updates for withdrawal or fitness concerns that could trigger sudden repricing.