TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 11, 4:33 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a Champions League soccer match between Sturm Graz and Fenerbahçe, focusing on the margin of victory during regulation time. It examines whether either team secures a decisive win by a specified number of goals within the standard 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates various goal-differential scenarios for the Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe Champions League match scheduled for August 11, 2026, considering only regulation time (90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties). Four distinct outcomes are assessed based on the winning margin: Sturm Graz winning by more than 2.5 goals, Sturm Graz winning by more than 1.5 goals, Fenerbahçe winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Fenerbahçe winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified condition is met; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. All markets are independent assessments of the match result under these conditions, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league or ownership of associated trademarks and branding.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders directly set prices through buying and selling contracts, creating a continuously updated spread expectation. The current probability reflects the collective view of all participants, adjusting in real time to new data such as player injuries or weather updates. Volume of $31,183 and 24-hour volume of $31,113 show how actively the market is trading, with spikes often following major news.
This market resolves around Aug 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread result after regulation time will be compared against the market’s settled point to determine payoffs for all positions.
Several key developments could shift probabilities before Aug 11, 2026. Injuries to star players, tactical changes by coaches, or even weather conditions affecting pitch quality can all influence perceptions of likely outcomes. High-profile media coverage highlighting one team's strengths may also drive trader sentiment. As the match approaches, any last-minute roster updates or strategic announcements will likely cause noticeable price swings.