TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which video game achieves the highest sales rank on Steam's US weekly top sellers list for a specific week in 2026. Participants speculate on whether particular titles will claim the top position based on consumer purchasing trends during that period.
Kalshi
The event determines the weekly top-selling game on Steam's USA Top 100 products by revenue list for the week of September 29 to October 6, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific game, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that particular game ranks #1 on the specified Steam sales chart for the defined week. The resolution is based solely on Steam's publicly available weekly sales data for the United States during the exact date range. All markets are independent, with each game's success or failure determined by its individual ranking position. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with Steam, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. Currently, there's a general question of whether prediction markets are more accurate than traditional forecasts in entertainment, and this market provides a test case. If analysts consistently predict a different outcome than what is priced into this market, it suggests the wisdom of the crowd may be more insightful. Discrepancies can arise from biases in analyst predictions or incomplete information, while the market incorporates a wider range of perspectives.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in whether a particular game will be the top seller. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome, with higher prices indicating a greater likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds based on their own research, analysis, and expectations, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the potential top seller. This mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official Steam Weekly Top Sellers list – Top 100 products by revenue for the week of September 29 to October 6, 2026. The game that holds the number one position on that list will determine the winning outcome for this market. The resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure transparency and accuracy.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major game releases leading up to the resolution date are key catalysts; a highly anticipated title launching shortly before the week in question could quickly become the favorite. Unexpected positive or negative reviews for existing games could also shift sentiment. Marketing campaigns, streamer endorsements, and even significant discounts on Steam could influence sales and, consequently, the market's probabilities. Any news relating to development delays or controversies surrounding potential top contenders will also likely impact trading activity in this market.
