TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
WARDOGS
- Kalshi
WARDOGS - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 22, 2026
Closed: Sep 21, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which video game achieves the highest sales ranking on Steam's US weekly top sellers list for a specific week in 2026. Participants can speculate on whether a particular game will claim the top spot based on anticipated player interest and release timing.
Kalshi
The event determines the outcome based on Steam's USA Weekly Top Sellers - Top 100 products by revenue list for the week of September 15 to September 22, 2026. If any listed game ranks #1 on this list during the specified period, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Each market corresponds to a specific game, and only one can resolve to Yes, as only one game can hold the #1 position at a time. The rules clarify that Kalshi has no official affiliation with Steam, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective wisdom stacks up against expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than traditional gaming analysts, potentially incorporating a wider range of factors and real-time information. While analysts may focus on pre-release hype or critical reception, the market reflects actual purchasing behavior as indicated by trading activity. Discrepancies between the two can highlight overlooked factors or differing interpretations of the game's potential success, offering a more nuanced understanding of the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different games being the top seller. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of that game's probability of winning. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for rapid adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment, providing a real-time assessment of the most likely outcome. The market depth shows how many contracts are available at different price points, indicating the level of demand and supply.
This market resolves around Sep 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the weekly Steam top seller charts are released and verifiable from credible public reporting. The game listed at the top of the charts will determine the winning outcome for this market. The resolution will be based on official sales data published by Steam, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the winning game. Traders should monitor official announcements from Steam as the resolution date approaches to stay informed about the final results.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Unexpected positive or negative reviews, major gameplay updates, or popular streamer endorsements could all shift sentiment. A surprise sale or promotion on a particular game could also drive increased purchases, impacting its chances of reaching the top spot. News regarding delays or controversies surrounding competing titles could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, any significant marketing push or community engagement efforts by game developers could sway the market as traders react to the evolving landscape of potential top sellers.
