TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
WARDOGS
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WARDOGS - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 15, 2026
Closed: Sep 14, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which video game achieves the highest sales rank on Steam during a specific week in 2026. Each market represents a different game, and the outcome depends on sales performance data from Steam's official rankings.
Kalshi
The event determines whether any listed video game achieves the top position on Steam's USA Weekly Top Sellers - Top 100 products by revenue list for the week of September 8 to September 15, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific game, and resolution occurs if that particular game ranks #1 during the specified period. The markets operate independently, meaning only the market associated with the actual top-selling game will resolve to Yes, with all others resolving to No. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with Steam, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a strong ability to aggregate information efficiently, potentially outperforming individual analyst predictions. Discrepancies can arise when analysts rely on biased sources or fail to account for unforeseen events impacting game popularity. The current probabilities reflected in this market represent the aggregated beliefs of a diverse group of traders, offering a unique perspective on the likely outcome of which game will be the Steam top seller.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the probability of a specific game being the top seller. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectations of all participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded, and inaccurate ones result in losses. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds closely reflect the perceived likelihood of each outcome.
This market resolves around Sep 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the game that is officially listed as the weekly top seller on the Steam platform by Valve will determine the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on publicly available data and will not rely on subjective interpretations. Traders should monitor official Steam announcements for the definitive results that will finalize this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major game releases, particularly highly anticipated titles, can dramatically shift trader sentiment. Positive or negative reviews from prominent gaming critics and streamers can also influence predictions. Unexpected discounts or promotional offers on Steam could boost sales for specific games, impacting their chances of reaching the top seller position. Lastly, any news regarding game updates, bug fixes, or community events could also affect trading activity in this market.
