TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
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The Blood of Dawnwalker
- Kalshi
The Blood of Dawnwalker - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 9, 2026
Closed: Sep 7, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which video game achieves the highest sales ranking on Steam during a specific week. Participants can speculate on whether particular titles will lead in revenue generation during that period, reflecting consumer preferences and market trends.
Kalshi
The event determines the top-selling video game on Steam's USA Weekly Top Sellers - Top 100 products by revenue list for the week of September 1 to September 8, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific game, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that particular game ranks #1 on the specified Steam sales chart for the defined week. All markets share the same evaluation period and methodology, focusing solely on revenue-based rankings without considering other factors like units sold or user engagement metrics. The secondary rules clarify that Kalshi has no official affiliation with Steam, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, where the aggregated predictions outperform individual analysts. However, discrepancies can emerge if analysts possess specialized knowledge or if the market is heavily influenced by recent news or events. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into the potential for profitable trading opportunities and the overall accuracy of forecasting methods for the Steam top seller.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about which game will be the top seller. Prices are determined by supply and demand – if more people believe a game will win, its price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the market's consensus probability of each game being the top seller, and traders can adjust their positions based on new information or changing sentiment. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market remains responsive to evolving expectations.
This market resolves around Sep 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official Steam charts are released and the week's top-selling game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the game with the highest revenue generated during the specified sales week. Traders should monitor official Steam announcements and industry news leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential catalysts that could influence the final result of this market.
Several signals could significantly move this market before resolution. Major game releases, significant discounts on popular titles, and positive or negative reviews from prominent gaming influencers can all impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements from game developers, such as updates or expansions, could also shift sentiment. Additionally, any news related to Steam itself, like platform updates or promotional events, could influence which games gain traction and ultimately become the top seller. Monitoring these factors is crucial for informed trading in this market.
