TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 3, 10:45 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the StarCraft II match between Arrogfire and Lorimbo in the HomeStory Cup XXIX Group B, initially scheduled for July 3 at 4:45PM ET. This market will resolve to "Arrogfire" if Arrogfire win the match against Lorimbo. This market will resolve to "Lorimbo" if Lorimbo win the match against Arrogfire. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://liquipedia.net/starcraft2/Main_Page. However, if https://liquipedia.net/starcraft2/Main_Page has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market refers to the StarCraft II match between Arrogfire and Lorimbo in the HomeStory Cup XXIX Group B, initially scheduled for July 3 at 4:45PM ET. This market will resolve to "Arrogfire" if Arrogfire win the match against Lorimbo. This market will resolve to "Lorimbo" if Lorimbo win the match against Arrogfire. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://liquipedia.net/starcraft2/Main_Page. However, if https://liquipedia.net/starcraft2/Main_Page has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they operate under different incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets rely on traders risking real capital to discover true probabilities. This market may show a different implied probability than what you'd find at a conventional esports sportsbook, reflecting the unique composition and risk appetite of Polymarket participants. Comparing the two can reveal arbitrage opportunities or signal where informed traders believe the consensus line is mispriced.
This market resolves around Jul 4, 2026, once the HomeStory Cup XXIX Group B match between these two players concludes and the result is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by which player wins the best-of-three series. Resolution occurs after the final game is played and confirmed through official tournament broadcasts or announcements. Traders should monitor the event schedule and any official updates from HomeStory Cup to anticipate the exact timing of resolution.
Several factors could shift odds before the match begins or unfolds. Recent tournament performances, head-to-head records, and player-specific meta knowledge can trigger repricing as new information surfaces. Roster changes, player statements, or injury announcements in the broader StarCraft II competitive scene may also influence trader sentiment. During the series itself, the outcome of individual games will drive sharp price movements, with the winner of Game 1 or Game 2 potentially signaling momentum. Monitor esports news outlets and official HomeStory Cup channels for developments that could reshape market expectations.