TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$244,265,276
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,349,697,137
578,254
Markets across
14,382
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,099
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Ligue 1 soccer match between Stade Rennais FC 1901 and Lille OSC scheduled for March 15, 2026. Markets span multiple platforms and include total goals over/under thresholds, spread betting on goal differential, and both-teams-to-score outcomes, all resolving on the official final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi uses exclusive threshold logic (more than X) while Polymarket uses inclusive threshold logic (X or more goals). This creates settlement divergence at exact boundary scores, particularly for 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 total goals.Hero Tip:
When the final combined score lands exactly on a round number (1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 goals), cross-check resolution against both platforms' formulations. Kalshi's >2.5 and Polymarket's O/U 2.5 will diverge at exactly 3 goals. Use this to identify potential arbitrage or hedge positions.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Four markets on total goals using exclusive thresholds: >1.5 (resolves Yes if 2+), >2.5 (resolves Yes if 3+), >3.5 (resolves Yes if 4+), >4.5 (resolves Yes if 5+). Key Quote: 'collectively score more than X total goals.'Polymarket:
Four Over/Under markets using inclusive thresholds: O/U 1.5 (Over if 2+), O/U 2.5 (Over if 3+), O/U 3.5 (Over if 4+), O/U 4.5 (Over if 5+). Also includes spread markets (-1.5, -2.5 for Lille; -1.5, -2.5 for Rennais) and Both Teams to Score. Key Quote: 'combine to score 4 or more goals.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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