TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 21, 12:19 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Andrea Guerrieri and Francesco Maestrelli in the St. Tropez, originally scheduled for September 21, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Andrea Guerrieri' if Andrea Guerrieri advances against Francesco Maestrelli. This market will resolve to 'Francesco Maestrelli' if Francesco Maestrelli advances against Andrea Guerrieri. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Andrea Guerrieri and Francesco Maestrelli in the St. Tropez, originally scheduled for September 21, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Andrea Guerrieri' if Andrea Guerrieri advances against Francesco Maestrelli. This market will resolve to 'Francesco Maestrelli' if Francesco Maestrelli advances against Andrea Guerrieri. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market relies on individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. These differences can stem from varying levels of information access, differing risk assessments, or simply the influence of public opinion on prediction market prices.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting growing confidence. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is determined solely by supply and demand within Polymarket, and is not influenced by external factors or other prediction markets. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date collective assessment of the event’s potential results.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the St. Tropez match between Andrea Guerrieri and Francesco Maestrelli. The platform will verify the outcome against publicly available and trusted sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. The resolution process is designed to be objective and impartial, providing a clear and definitive result for all traders participating in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to Sep 28, 2026. Any news regarding the players' form, potential injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule or location could also introduce volatility. Furthermore, large trading volumes from informed participants or shifts in broader public opinion could drive price movements. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding how the market is evolving and identifying potential trading opportunities before the match concludes.