TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 1, 9:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This event predicts the margin of victory in the St. Louis vs Atlanta baseball game on July 1, 2026. Bettors wager on whether one team will win by more than a specified number of runs.
Resolution is determined by the run differential between St. Louis and Atlanta in the professional baseball game originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 7:15 PM EDT. Each outcome specifies a team and run margin threshold, with resolution to Yes occurring if that team wins by more than the specified margin. The game's final official score, as recorded by the league, determines the winner and margin of victory.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets like this one are driven by traders risking real capital on their forecasts. This market aggregates the collective judgment of participants who have skin in the game, sometimes revealing edges that sportsbooks have not yet fully priced in. Comparing the two can highlight where public perception differs from professional oddsmaking.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks on shares representing different spread outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective confidence in that particular spread result, with higher prices indicating stronger trader conviction. As new information emerges or sentiment shifts, the bid-ask spread tightens or widens accordingly. Liquidity and trading volume directly influence how efficiently prices update and how easily you can enter or exit a position.
This market resolves around Jul 2, 2026, once the game concludes and the final score is official. The outcome is determined by the actual point differential between St. Louis and Atlanta, verified against credible public sources covering the event. Once the result is confirmed and the market settles, all positions are paid out according to whether they correctly predicted the spread. Traders should monitor official game reporting to anticipate the resolution timing.
Key catalysts include injury announcements, lineup changes, or roster updates affecting either team's performance capability. Weather conditions on game day, travel circumstances, or last-minute coaching decisions can shift trader expectations around scoring output and defensive execution. Public betting trends and sharp money flowing into one side may also influence market pricing as professional bettors position themselves. Breaking news about team momentum, recent form, or head-to-head matchup dynamics typically triggers repricing as new information reaches traders.