TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 1, 8:04 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the outcome of the first 3 innings of the St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves professional baseball game scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 7:15 PM EDT. The result is determined by which team has the higher score after exactly 3 complete innings, or whether both teams have scored an equal number of runs.
Resolution is based on the score at the end of the first 3 innings of the St. Louis vs Atlanta game originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 7:15 PM EDT. The market resolves to Yes for whichever outcome matches the actual result: St. Louis ahead, Atlanta ahead, or tied score. If the score is tied after 3 innings, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes while all team-specific outcomes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and resolves after the rescheduled game concludes, within two days of the original scheduled date.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and collective trader judgment rather than expert opinion alone. In this market, traders continuously update prices based on team form, recent performance, and game conditions, which can lead to sharper or more conservative odds than published forecasts. Comparing the two reveals where the crowd sees value or risk that analysts may have overlooked.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for shares representing each outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the balance of buy and sell orders at any moment, with wider spreads indicating lower liquidity and tighter spreads showing strong consensus. As new information emerges or trading volume increases, prices adjust dynamically to reflect updated probabilities.
This market resolves around Jul 2, 2026, once the first three innings of the game are complete and the result is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome is determined by the final score or event recorded during that window, confirmed through official game data. Resolution typically occurs shortly after the inning concludes, allowing traders to settle positions and move on to subsequent markets.
Key catalysts include lineup announcements, starting pitcher confirmation, recent team performance trends, and weather conditions on game day. Injury updates or roster changes can shift odds significantly, as can betting market movement or sharp action from professional traders. Real-time game developments—such as early runs, errors, or momentum swings—will drive price action once play begins, making early innings particularly volatile for this market.