TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 12, 10:55 PM EST
Polymarket
This group focuses on the outcome of a Major League Soccer (MLS) match between St. Louis City SC and Minnesota United FC scheduled for September 12, 2026. Markets exist for St. Louis City SC winning, Minnesota United FC winning, and the game ending in a draw.
This event is for the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for Saturday, September 12, 2026 between St. Louis City SC and Minnesota United FC.
If Green Bay and Minnesota both score points in the 4th quarter (excluding overtime) of the Green Bay vs Minnesota Pro Football game originally scheduled for Sep 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the underlying mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds to maximize profit, incorporating a margin for themselves, while prediction markets are driven by genuine user forecasts. This market’s price reflects what participants believe will happen, creating a more accurate signal, especially as more information becomes available. Furthermore, prediction markets allow participants to take either side of a bet, whereas sportsbooks primarily offer odds on specific outcomes. This difference in incentive structures can lead to notable discrepancies in implied probabilities.
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Kalshi on this market can arise from several factors. Each platform has a different user base, leading to varying perspectives and information incorporated into the forecasts. Trading volume also plays a role; a market with higher volume on one platform may have more efficient price discovery. Additionally, the specific market questions offered on each platform can influence prices. For example, Polymarket currently favors Will St. Louis City SC win at 68, while Kalshi leans toward Both teams to score in the 4th quarter, reflecting different focuses in the questions asked.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either St. Louis City SC or Minnesota United FC would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in team form, such as a surprising win or loss in a preceding match, could also shift trader sentiment. Weather conditions on match day, particularly if they are expected to be severe, might influence the perceived advantage for either team. Finally, any significant pre-match analysis or expert opinions released to the public could also contribute to movement in this market.