TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
SSC Napoli vs. AS Roma
Volume:
$3,317,902
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers three interconnected prediction markets on the Serie A match between SSC Napoli and AS Roma scheduled for February 15, 2026. The markets assess whether Napoli wins, Roma wins, or the match ends in a draw, all evaluated at the conclusion of 90 minutes plus stoppage time (regular play only).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution structure is logically impossible (all three mutually exclusive outcomes cannot simultaneously resolve to Yes), and cancellation handling diverges fundamentally between platforms. Polymarket's cancellation logic also creates asymmetric risk across the three markets.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi markets until resolution logic is clarified—the current structure cannot be settled. On Polymarket, recognize that cancellation creates a hedge: long Draw + short Napoli + short Roma is protected if the game is canceled. Verify with both platforms that their intended logic matches their published rules before committing capital.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: All three markets (Napoli win, Roma win, Tie) are stated to resolve Yes. This is logically impossible since only one outcome can occur. The platform appears to have published a template error rather than three distinct markets. Key quote: 'If Napoli wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Roma wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets with outcome-specific resolutions. Napoli Win and Roma Win resolve No on cancellation; Draw resolves Yes on cancellation. This creates asymmetric cancellation exposure. Key quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve No' (Napoli/Roma) vs. 'this market will resolve Yes' (Draw).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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