TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 25, 7:27 PM EST
Kalshi
This event measures the goal differential between Sportivo Ameliano and Nacional in their professional APF Division de Honor soccer match on July 25, 2026. It determines which team wins by how large a margin after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.
Resolution depends on the final goal differential in the Sportivo Ameliano vs Nacional match on July 25, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (excluding extra time and penalties). Outcomes are structured around margin thresholds for each team: Sportivo Ameliano outcomes resolve Yes if Sportivo Ameliano wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals respectively, while Nacional outcomes resolve Yes if Nacional wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals respectively. For instance, a 4-1 Sportivo Ameliano victory resolves Yes for both Sportivo Ameliano spread outcomes, while a 2-0 Nacional win resolves Yes only for the Nacional 1.5-goal threshold.
Prediction market odds often differ from traditional sportsbook lines due to the decentralized nature of trading. In this market, traders can react more quickly to new information, which may cause odds to move differently than standard sportsbook lines. For example, a surprise injury or weather change might shift trader sentiment faster than sportsbooks adjust their spreads. Monitoring both can provide a broader view of expectations.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the price through continuous bidding and asking, which determines the current implied probability for each possible spread outcome. The market uses a log-odds pricing model that adjusts based on order flow and liquidity. As the match date nears, any new data about team form, player availability, or venue conditions can cause rapid shifts in pricing.
This market resolves around Jul 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score from the official match result will be used to determine whether the spread posted by Sportivo Ameliano was over or under the line set in this market. No further interpretation or calculation beyond the published result is needed.
Injuries to key players, changes in coaching strategy, or weather conditions that affect gameplay could all shift this market. Also, any significant betting trends on Kalshi—especially large trades—can move the implied probabilities quickly. Media reports about team morale or tactical updates often influence trader sentiment in the days leading up to the match.