TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 25, 9:32 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Sporting Jax and Loudoun United FC, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different goal-differential scenarios in the Sporting Jax versus Loudoun United FC USL Championship match scheduled for September 25, 2026. Resolution occurs based on the winning margin after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Four distinct outcomes are considered: Sporting Jax winning by more than 2.5 goals, Sporting Jax winning by more than 1.5 goals, Loudoun United FC winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Loudoun United FC winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each market resolves to 'Yes' only if the specified condition regarding the goal differential is met; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The rules clarify that Kalshi has no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and often incorporate a margin for profit, while this market allows traders to collectively express their beliefs about the probability of different outcomes. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook odds, it could indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the event, or that new information hasn't been fully incorporated into sportsbook lines yet. It’s a good way to see where public sentiment diverges from professional analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their predictions on the spread. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will fluctuate, providing a real-time indication of market sentiment. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price movements before the market resolves.
This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official final spread of the Sporting Jax vs Loudoun United FC match, as reported by a trusted sports data provider. Traders holding contracts on the correct side of the spread will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect side will forfeit their stake. The market’s resolution is independent of any individual’s opinion or interpretation.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 26, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or weather conditions impacting the game could shift market sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team strategies or coaching changes might also cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and drive price movements, as traders react to each other’s actions and adjust their own predictions based on new information.