TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 89
- Kalshi
Above 89 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 3, 2026
Closed: Aug 3, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether the film Spider-Man: Brand New Day will achieve a Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score of at least 90. The aggregated consensus probability for this outcome is 100.0%, drawn from Kalshi and Polymarket, with resolution based on the film's Tomatometer score as of August 3, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. Watch for the film's release and critical reviews leading up to the August 3, 2026 resolution deadline.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi presents 14 redundant threshold conditions with no explicit No resolution or fallback logic, while Polymarket defines four discrete binary markets with complete resolution rules including data unavailability fallback to August 7, 2026.Hero tip: Kalshi's market structure is logically incomplete—it does not specify what happens if the score falls at or below 30, or if data is unavailable. Polymarket provides explicit fallback resolution (No if data unavailable by August 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET). Before trading Kalshi, confirm with the platform whether scores of 30 or below resolve to No, and what happens if Rotten Tomatoes data is missing at the resolution time.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: 14 overlapping threshold conditions (30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, 60, 65, 70, 75, 80, 85, 90, 95), all resolving to Yes if exceeded. No explicit No condition defined. No fallback or data unavailability clause. Quote: 'If Spider-Man: Brand New Day has a Tomatometer score of above [X] on Aug 3, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Four discrete binary markets at thresholds 80, 85, 90, and 95. Explicit fallback: data checked until August 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET; resolves to No if unavailable. Quote: 'If no data is available by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to No if no data is available by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.'
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes “All Critics” Tomatometer score for Spider-Man: Brand New Day (2026) is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on August 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to “No” if no data is available by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the film's Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score on August 3, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, the Monday following the wide release. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific threshold: the score must exceed the stated value to resolve as Yes (for example, a score of exactly 75 resolves "Above 75" as No, while 76 resolves it as Yes). The determination uses the official Tomatometer score available on that date and time.
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts traders with different risk appetites, time horizons, and information sets. Polymarket and Kalshi may frame the outcome differently—one focusing on a score threshold, the other on a broader range—leading to distinct pricing. Liquidity depth, fee structures, and user demographics also shape how quickly each venue reacts to news. Arbitrage opportunities can emerge if one platform lags the other, but transaction costs and withdrawal friction often prevent perfect convergence across venues.