TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
350m+
- Polymarket
350m+ - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 4, 2026
Closed: Aug 3, 11:16 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether the domestic opening weekend box office for "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" will reach at least 350 million dollars, according to Polymarket, with resolution based on data from The Numbers. The current probability that the film will meet or exceed 350 million stands at 97.6%, while the probability it will gross between 340 million and 350 million is 2.5%. Watch for the official figures to be reported by August 2, 2026, which will determine the market outcome.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the price through their bets, which determine the implied probability for each outcome. The current top outcome reflects collective trader expectations about the film's opening weekend performance relative to the strike level. As new data emerges — such as early showings, critic reviews, or social media buzz — these bets adjust, shifting the market price dynamically.
This market resolves around Aug 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final box office figure for the film’s opening weekend will be compared against the defined strike threshold to determine whether the higher or lower strikes outcome is correct. No additional interpretation is needed beyond the publicly released numbers.
Key signals that could shift this market include early audience reception metrics, major marketing releases such as trailers or TV spots, competition from other films releasing the same weekend, and any last-minute changes to the release strategy. Unexpected events like cast announcements, controversies, or pandemic-related restrictions could also impact trader sentiment and move the odds significantly as Aug 2, 2026 approaches.
