TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
>280m
- Polymarket
>280m - Polymarket
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 4, 2026
Closed: Aug 3, 11:14 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether the domestic opening weekend box office for "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" will exceed $280 million, currently showing 98.3% probability for the leading outcome, with a secondary outcome of between $240 million and $260 million at 0.4% on Polymarket. Resolution will be based on data from The Numbers. Watch for the official figures to be published by August 2, 2026, which will determine the market outcome.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like this one aggregate real-money bets from traders and often diverge from traditional analyst estimates. While studio projections and box office analysts may rely on historical comps and marketing spend, this market reflects live trader conviction backed by financial incentive. Comparing the current odds to published forecasts from industry analysts can reveal where the crowd sees upside or downside risk relative to expert consensus. Over time, prediction markets have proven competitive with or superior to single-expert forecasts for entertainment outcomes.
On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling outcome shares in an automated market maker or order-book system. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome bracket carries its own price, ranging from 0 to 100 cents, where the price reflects the implied probability that outcome will occur. When you buy a share at a given price, you're wagering that outcome will resolve true; if it does, your share pays $1. The spread between bid and ask prices indicates market tightness and liquidity for each bracket.
This market resolves around Aug 2, 2026, once the opening weekend box office figures are finalized and verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome is determined by the actual domestic box office total for the film's opening weekend, measured from Friday through Sunday of its debut. Once the final number is confirmed through industry-standard sources, the winning outcome bracket is determined and traders holding shares in that bracket receive their payout.
Several catalysts can shift odds before resolution. Trailer releases, social media sentiment, and early reviews from critics or test screenings often trigger sharp price moves. Box office tracking updates from industry analysts provide real-time signals that traders incorporate immediately. Competing releases, holiday scheduling, and broader entertainment news can also influence expectations. Major celebrity news, director or writer commentary, and franchise momentum all feed into trader positioning. As opening weekend approaches, early ticket sales data and pre-order trends become increasingly influential drivers of market repricing.
