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24H VOL:
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OPEN INTEREST:
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406,019
Markets across
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events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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22-24m
- Polymarket
22-24m - Polymarket
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 31, 2026
Closed: Aug 31, 5:27 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether the domestic box office gross for "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" on its 5th weekend will fall between 22 million and 24 million. On Polymarket, the leading outcome currently holds a probability of 98.0%, while the second outcome is at 1.6%. The market resolution will use figures from The Numbers website. Watch for the final weekend box office numbers on August 28 - 30, which will determine the outcome.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 5th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 28 - 30) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a higher probability of the film landing within a specific box office range compared to many analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer varied projections based on historical data and market trends, this market reflects the collective trader sentiment, which can diverge due to recent events, social media buzz, or surprise box office performance. Tracking both sources helps identify potential outliers or emerging consensus.
This market resolves around Aug 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final box office numbers for the fifth weekend will be compared against the market’s defined ranges, and the market will settle based on which range best matches the officially reported figure. Timing depends on when reliable, publicly available data is released.
Several signals could shift this market before it resolves, including new box office previews, media coverage of the film’s performance, social media trends, or unexpected events like award nominations or controversies. Any data suggesting a stronger or weaker audience turnout may cause traders to adjust their positions. Additionally, broader market sentiment or macroeconomic factors affecting cinema attendance could also influence pricing as the resolution date approaches.
