TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Spanish Grand Prix: Driver Podium Finish
kalshi
polymarket

Will a driver finish on the podium?

Volume:
$134,049

Lando Norris

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Closed: Sep 13, 9:26 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Lando Norris

View
100%
30%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$32,106
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Lando Norris

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$444
N/A
N/A
$329
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Max Verstappen

View
100%
46%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$14,191
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Max Verstappen

View
100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,202
N/A
N/A
$722
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Kimi Antonelli

View
100%
25%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,034
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Andrea Kimi Antonelli

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$484
N/A
N/A
$355
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Charles Leclerc

View
100%
42%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,617
N/A
N/A
$1,682
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Charles Leclerc

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,256
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

George Russell

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$645
N/A
N/A
$564
Settled
Yes
polymarket

George Russell

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,675
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Oscar Piastri

View
0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,371
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Oscar Piastri

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,097
N/A
N/A
$1,294
Settled
No
polymarket

Lewis Hamilton

View
0%
42%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,222
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Lewis Hamilton

View
0%
71%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,778
N/A
N/A
$1,434
Settled
No
polymarket

Pierre Gasly

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,019
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Pierre Gasly

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$164
N/A
N/A
$164
Settled
No
polymarket

Carlos Sainz Jr.

View
0%
33%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,909
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Carlos Sainz Jr.

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$154
N/A
N/A
$154
Settled
No
kalshi

Isack Hadjar

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,657
N/A
N/A
$1,247
Settled
No
polymarket

Isack Hadjar

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,366
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Gabriel Bortoleto

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,463
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Gabriel Bortoleto

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$254
N/A
N/A
$243
Settled
No
polymarket

Arvid Lindblad

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,420
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Arvid Lindblad

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$813
N/A
N/A
$569
Settled
No
polymarket

Liam Lawson

View
0%
51%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,366
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 44

Description

This group forecasts which Formula 1 drivers will finish on the podium (top three positions) at the 2026 Spanish Grand Prix. Markets are available for individual drivers, predicting their likelihood of achieving a podium finish.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The platforms have differing thresholds for a positive resolution: Polymarket requires a top-3 finish, while Kalshi only requires a top-5 finish.Hero tip: Consider the differing thresholds when evaluating these markets. Kalshi markets offer broader coverage of potential positive outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if a driver finishes in the top 3 based on the official FIA Final Classification. Disqualifications after classification publication do not affect resolution.
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if a driver finishes in the top 5 in the main race. The race is scheduled for September 13, 2026.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed driver finishes within the top three positions in the official "Final Classification" for the F1 Spanish Grand Prix, scheduled for Sep 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The "Final Classification" is published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. It is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the "Final Classification" will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market. If the Spanish Grand Prix is postponed, this market will remain open until the event has been completed. If the Spanish Grand Prix is permanently canceled, this market will resolve 50-50.

Kalshi

Each market resolves based on whether the named driver finishes in the top five positions of the official race classification for the 2026 Spanish Grand Prix, scheduled for September 13, 2026. A driver must be classified as a finisher; any retirement, disqualification, or failure to finish results in a 'No' outcome for that market. If the race is postponed but starts within 48 hours of its original time, markets remain open and resolve on the final official result. If the race is canceled or does not start within 48 hours, all markets resolve at a fair price. Official results are determined by the FIA's 'Final Race Classification' and provisional results are not considered. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with or connected to the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found for this market, often reflect a different kind of wisdom than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while prediction markets aggregate the beliefs of many individual traders. This can lead to more accurate predictions, especially when there is significant volume. However, sportsbooks often have earlier lines available and may offer different types of wagers. It’s common to see initial discrepancies between the two, which tend to narrow as the event approaches and more information becomes available.

Numerous factors could influence trading activity and shift the probabilities in this market. Driver performance in preceding races, team announcements regarding car upgrades, and even weather forecasts for the Spanish Grand Prix weekend can all impact trader sentiment. Unexpected driver injuries or team strategy changes would also be significant catalysts. Major news regarding engine reliability or aerodynamic developments could also move the market. Keep an eye on these events as they unfold, as they could lead to substantial shifts in the perceived likelihood of different drivers finishing on the podium.