TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Spanish Grand Prix: Biggest Mover
kalshi

Who gains the most positions in the Spanish Grand Prix?

Volume:
$59,872

Liam Lawson

 - Kalshi

Liam Lawson - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 13, 2026

Closed: Sep 13, 3:15 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Liam Lawson

View
25%
43%
Yes 25¢No 75¢
100¢
N/A
$855
N/A
N/A
$490
Settled
No
kalshi

Pierre Gasly

View
25%
Yes 25¢No 75¢
100¢
N/A
$722
N/A
N/A
$610
Settled
No
kalshi

Esteban Ocon

View
25%
Yes 25¢No 75¢
100¢
N/A
$210
N/A
N/A
$210
Settled
No
kalshi

Franco Colapinto

View
25%
Yes 25¢No 75¢
100¢
N/A
$79
N/A
N/A
$79
Settled
No
kalshi

Oliver Bearman

View
0%
35%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$55,352
N/A
N/A
$50,450
Settled
No
kalshi

Lando Norris

View
0%
92%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$835
N/A
N/A
$630
Settled
No
kalshi

George Russell

View
0%
41%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$502
N/A
N/A
$287
Settled
No
kalshi

Carlos Sainz Jr.

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$305
N/A
N/A
$305
Settled
No
kalshi

Charles Leclerc

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$250
N/A
N/A
$250
Settled
No
kalshi

Oscar Piastri

View
0%
48%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$228
N/A
N/A
$228
Settled
No
kalshi

Fernando Alonso

View
0%
60%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$210
N/A
N/A
$193
Settled
No
kalshi

Max Verstappen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$96
N/A
N/A
$86
Settled
No
kalshi

Arvid Lindblad

View
0%
47%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$66
N/A
N/A
$66
Settled
No
kalshi

Andrea Kimi Antonelli

View
0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$65
N/A
N/A
$65
Settled
No
kalshi

Gabriel Bortoleto

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$40
N/A
N/A
$40
Settled
No
kalshi

Lewis Hamilton

View
0%
43%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$34
N/A
N/A
$34
Settled
No
kalshi

Nico Hulkenberg

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
$15
Settled
No
kalshi

Sergio Perez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7
N/A
N/A
$7
Settled
No
kalshi

Alexander Albon

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Lance Stroll

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Isack Hadjar

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Valtteri Bottas

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 22

Description

This market focuses on identifying which driver achieves the greatest improvement in race position from their starting grid spot to their final classified finish in the 2026 Spanish Grand Prix. The outcome depends purely on the race performance and starting positions of the drivers.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on whether the specified driver achieves the largest positive differential between their starting grid position and finishing position in the 2026 Spanish Grand Prix. Drivers must have both an official starting grid position and an official classified finishing position to be eligible. If the driver fails to qualify, participate, or receives a DNF without a classified position, or is disqualified, the market resolves as 'No'. A driver who starts from the pit lane has their starting position treated as one position lower than the last regularly gridded driver, unless a specific numeric grid position is published. If the race is postponed within 48 hours of the original start time, the market resolves based on the rescheduled race. If the race is canceled or rescheduled more than 48 hours from the original start, all contracts settle at a fair price. In case of ties for the greatest position differential, 'Yes' positions pay $1 divided by the number of tied drivers (rounded down), and 'No' positions pay one minus the 'Yes' payout. Official ties in grid or finish positions retain the tied position number, with the next position skipping ahead.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Spanish Grand Prix market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You can see how the implied probabilities of different outcomes are changing in real-time, as well as review past price movements to understand market sentiment. The current 24-hour volume is $58,358, and the total volume traded to date is $59,872. This allows traders to gauge interest and potential shifts in expectations for the biggest mover during the race.

Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on expert analysis and incorporate a margin for profit, while this market allows traders to adjust probabilities based on their own information and insights. If prediction market odds diverge significantly from sportsbook odds, it may indicate that traders believe the sportsbook is mispricing a particular outcome or that new information hasn't yet been fully factored into the sportsbook's lines. It’s a fascinating comparison to observe.

This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine which driver experienced the largest change in their finishing position compared to their qualifying position at the Spanish Grand Prix. The result will be based on official race results and verified against credible public sources. Traders should monitor official Formula 1 reporting for updates as the resolution date approaches, as this will determine the final payout for this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Unexpected weather conditions during qualifying or the race could dramatically alter driver performance and finishing positions. Mechanical failures or collisions involving key drivers would also be major catalysts. News regarding driver fitness, car upgrades, or team strategy changes could also shift expectations. Any significant development impacting a driver’s ability to improve their race position relative to their qualifying position has the potential to move this market substantially before Sep 13, 2026.