TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Spain vs. Portugal
polymarket
kalshi

Spain vs. Portugal

Volume:
$601,588

Portugal

 - Kalshi

Portugal - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 28, 2026

Closed: Aug 28, 5:20 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Portugal

View
100%
90%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$320,185
N/A
N/A
$126,637
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 162.5

View
100%
58%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$36
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Spain

View
0%
90%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$245,997
N/A
N/A
$119,301
Settled
No
polymarket

Spain (-18.5)

View
0%
39%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$61
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spain vs. Portugal

View
0%
88%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$35,309
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the men's professional FIBA World Cup Qualifiers basketball game between Spain and Portugal. The current aggregated consensus gives Spread: Spain (-18.5) a 19.0% probability, with Spain vs. Portugal at 0.1%. Data is aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution governed by the official FIBA World Cup Qualifiers rules. Watch for the game scheduled for August 28, 2026, as this will determine the final outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental mismatch in settlement logic: Polymarket resolves to the winning team or 50-50 on cancellation, while Kalshi always resolves to Yes regardless of winnerHero tip: Do not arbitrage between these markets. Polymarket offers proper outcome resolution; Kalshi functions as a binary 'game occurs' market regardless of winner

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to Spain or Portugal based on the winner, or 50-50 if canceled entirely without a make-up game. 'If the Spain win, the market will resolve to "Spain". If the Portugal win, the market will resolve to "Portugal". If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.'
  • Kalshi: Always resolves to Yes regardless of which team wins. 'If Spain wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Portugal wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming FIBA WCQ Europe game, scheduled for August 28 at 6:00AM ET: If the Spain win, the market will resolve to "Spain". If the Portugal win, the market will resolve to "Portugal". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the winner of the Portugal vs Spain men's professional FIBA World Cup Qualifiers basketball game scheduled for August 28, 2026. If Spain wins, the Spain market resolves to Yes, and the Portugal market resolves to No. Conversely, if Portugal wins, the Portugal market resolves to Yes, and the Spain market resolves to No. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original start time, both markets remain open and resolve according to the final official result. If the game is cancelled or fails to start within the 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants. Kalshi clarifies that it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Spain vs. Portugal football match market aggregates real-time data from multiple venues, showing how traders across platforms price the likelihood of various outcomes. It displays current probabilities, volume of $601,588 and 24-hour volume of $592,879, plus a consensus view shaped by the top outcomes on each venue. This cross-platform view helps users spot shifts in sentiment as the match approaches.