TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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14+ goals
- Kalshi
14+ goals - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 19, 2026
Closed: Jul 19, 6:49 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event group covers Spain's goal-scoring performance at the 2026 FIFA World Cup across two distinct scopes: total tournament goals (Kalshi) and group stage goals compared to England (Limitless). The markets measure Spain's offensive output using different thresholds and comparative frameworks.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Scope divergence: Kalshi covers full tournament goals (all rounds); Limitless covers group stage goals only with comparative framework. Different measurement windows and resolution triggers make these markets measure distinct outcomes.Hero tip: Treat these as separate prediction families. Kalshi requires tracking Spain's total output across 7+ potential matches; Limitless requires tracking only group stage (3 matches) and comparing to England. A strong group stage for Spain does not guarantee hitting Kalshi thresholds if they exit early.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Five binary markets on Spain's absolute total tournament goals: 12+, 14+, 16+, 18+, 20+. Scope is full tournament including all rounds (group, knockout, extra time). Resolution occurs after final match. Key Quote: 'full tournament (including regulation, stoppage and any extra time periods).'
- Limitless: Three comparative markets on group stage goals only: Spain ties England, Spain exceeds England, England exceeds Spain. Scope limited to group stage matches. Extra time counts; penalty shootout goals do not. Resolution occurs after both teams complete group stage. Key Quote: 'across all group stage matches at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.'
Kalshi
Goal totals for Spain during the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup are determined by counting all goals scored during regulation, stoppage time, and any extra time periods across the full tournament. Own goals scored by opposing players that benefit Spain count toward Spain's total. Own goals scored by Spain's players that benefit the opposing team do not count toward Spain's total goals.
Limitless
This market will resolve to "YES" if England scores a strictly greater number of goals than Spain across all group stage matches at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Goals scored during extra time count toward the total. Goals scored in penalty shootouts do not count. This market will resolve as soon as both England and Spain have completed all their group stage matches at the 2026 FIFA World Cup and official final goal totals are available. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC, or official final goal totals for England and Spain are not available within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Kalshi and Limitless may price Spain's goals differently due to variations in market depth, user demographics, and outcome specifications. Kalshi and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi focuses on relative goal comparisons (Spain vs. England in group stage), while Limitless targets absolute thresholds (12+ goals in the full tournament). Liquidity imbalances, fee structures, and the timing of major news can also create temporary spreads. Traders exploit these gaps by comparing odds across platforms, which gradually narrows divergence as arbitrage activity increases toward the tournament start.
Key catalysts include Spain's squad composition and injury updates, recent qualifying performance and goal-scoring trends, coaching changes or tactical shifts, and draw announcements revealing group opponents. Tournament momentum—early wins or losses—will shift expectations for Spain's total goals. Weather conditions, referee patterns, and opponent defensive strength during group and knockout stages will also influence outcomes. Major upsets or standout individual performances by Spanish strikers could trigger rapid repricing. Monitor official FIFA announcements, team news, and pre-tournament friendlies for signals that traders will incorporate into live odds.
